2026-01-07 22:22:47

On-chain data research analyst Julio Moreno recently issued a rather warning market assessment. He believes that Bitcoin has now entered the early stages of a bear market, with both on-chain indicators and market performance signaling that demand has significantly weakened.

The most direct evidence comes from the performance of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Since early November this year, these ETFs have reversed course, shifting from continuous net inflows to net outflows. This indicates that institutional funding enthusiasm is waning. At the same time, apart from steadfast holders like MicroStrategy, other corporate finance departments have shown little to no new buying activity. This collective silence on demand is indeed worth noting.

What’s more concerning is that if prices continue to decline, a chain reaction could be triggered. institutions holding loans as collateral might be forced to liquidate, further intensifying selling pressure. Moreno predicts that Bitcoin prices will continue to face pressure in 2026, with downside potential approaching around $56,000. To change this situation, the key still depends on when demand can recover — that is the breakthrough point for reversing the market structure.

BTC-0.2%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

16 Likes

Reward
16
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

CryptoTherapist

· 01-07 22:52

ngl, the institutional cold shoulder we're witnessing rn is basically your portfolio's cry for help... let's unpack this bear market trauma together, yeah? 56k is giving "capitulation meditation" energy tbh

Reply0

PhantomMiner

· 01-07 22:52

Here comes the Bitcoin pessimism again, tired of this narrative --- Wait, are institutional big players really fleeing? Let’s take a closer look at the ETF outflow volume first --- 56k? Laughable. Someone predicts the bottom every time, and then what? --- The judgment that demand is weak is not necessarily accurate in my view. Retail investors are still rushing in --- MicroStrategy is holding firm alone. Should we learn from it or laugh at it? --- The chain reaction part definitely needs caution, but this is too fatalistic --- Honestly, it still comes down to the commodity cycle. Bitcoin is not independent --- Early in the bear market? Then our definitions of "early" are different --- The 2026 prediction makes me just haha. We can’t even see clearly for next year --- Institutional enthusiasm waning ≠ all investors have fled. Don’t confuse the two, okay

View OriginalReply0

DecentralizeMe

· 01-07 22:49

Net outflows have started, is this really the case this time? --- 56k? Sounds good, I bet five bucks it will go even lower. --- Are those MicroStrategy guys crazy? Still hoarding here. --- Weak demand is just a show; we'll know once the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. --- Here comes the bear market talk again. This time last year they said it was a bear market, and now? --- The chain reaction part sounds a bit harsh. Is it exaggerated? --- Are institutions really withdrawing? I feel like it's mainly just shaking out positions. --- Only surpassing 2026? Then maybe I can still buy the dip now.

View OriginalReply0

SignatureAnxiety

· 01-07 22:47

You're at it again, claiming a bear market just because of net outflows? We've heard this argument last year, and look what happened... Institutional withdrawals are normal, but don't forget retail investors are still buying... 56,000? Dream on, unless some systemic risk actually occurs. MicroStrategy and those guys are still throwing money around, which means at least someone is optimistic. Now there's analysis flying everywhere; anyway, there's a reason for both betting right and betting wrong. Just laugh.

View OriginalReply0

AirdropHarvester

· 01-07 22:41

Here we go again, stirring up panic. I just want to ask—is 56,000 really the bottom? --- Is net ETF outflow equal to a bear market? That logic is way too straightforward... Institutions are rebalancing, my friend. --- Sounds nice, but isn't it just waiting for cheap prices? Don't pretend to be so official. --- MicroStrategy is holding alone, everyone else is scared. That's a bit ironic, huh? --- I was really worried about the margin call during the liquidation, but it also gave a chance to bottom fish? --- When will demand recover? That's the real question. What's the use of just predicting the downside potential? --- If early bear market comments are made, how early can early be? --- If 56k really comes, I'll go all in—assuming it really happens.

View OriginalReply0