Why is Venezuela eager to discuss oil with the United States after Maduro's fall?

Venezuela’s state oil company (PDVSA) suddenly announced negotiations with the United States to sell crude oil, a signal that carries deep political and economic logic. Under the multiple pressures of the Maduro regime’s collapse, halted oil exports, and depleted US dollar reserves, this negotiation could mark a critical turning point for Venezuela’s shift from sanctions confrontation to international cooperation.

Regime Change Alters the Rules of the Game

According to the latest news, the United States has arrested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on charges of drug trafficking and money laundering. This political event has triggered a series of chain reactions within just a few days. With the fall of the old regime, relations between Venezuela and the US have experienced a dramatic turnaround—from long-standing sanctions confrontation to negotiation and cooperation.

PDVSA’s announcement to negotiate with the US to sell crude oil is essentially a signal of the new regime’s attempt to appease Washington. This is not just a commercial transaction but also a reflection of political recalibration.

The Reality of Stalled Oil Exports

To understand the urgency of this negotiation, one must recognize Venezuela’s current predicament. According to relevant information, Venezuela possesses the world’s largest proven oil reserves (about 303 billion barrels, accounting for 17% of the global total), but its current daily oil production is less than 1 million barrels, only about 1% of global oil output.

More severely, under ongoing US oil sanctions, Venezuela’s oil exports have come to a halt. Even Chevron, which has obtained US government operating permits, has ceased oil shipments to the US since January 1. PDVSA’s onshore inventories are continuously increasing, and the diluents used to blend Venezuelan heavy crude have been exhausted. The company has begun shutting down oil fields or well groups.

In this context, reopening export channels has become a survival issue, not just an economic one.

Wall Street’s Attitude Shift Reflects Market Expectations

The reaction of capital markets often best illustrates the situation. According to the latest reports, William Blair’s investment manager Jared Lu stated that “expectations for the ultimate recovery value of Venezuela’s debt have improved.” Venezuelan bonds have surged significantly—bonds maturing in 2034 rose nearly 10 cents after the news, and the 2031 bonds reached a price of 42.60 cents.

This rally reflects Wall Street’s optimistic outlook on Venezuela’s situation following regime change. Investors are closely watching for possible debt restructuring and oil fund injections, which market participants interpret as positive signals regarding US negotiations.

Hidden Chips: The Geopolitical Role of Bitcoin Reserves

There is also a little-known background to this negotiation. According to intelligence analysis, Venezuela has quietly built up Bitcoin and USDT reserves worth over billion since 2018 to circumvent sanctions. This “shadow reserve” includes between 600,000 and 660,000 BTC, comparable in scale to MicroStrategy and far exceeding El Salvador.

How were these assets accumulated? According to sources, Venezuela used three main methods:

• Gold swaps: In 2018, exported 73.2 tons of gold (worth about $2.7 billion), some converted into BTC when Bitcoin prices were low (around $5,000)
• Oil settlements: From 2023 to 2025, PDVSA required oil trade to be settled in USDT, then converted to Bitcoin
• Mining confiscation: Seized private Bitcoin mining farms, directly taking the mined coins into state ownership

These hidden crypto assets could serve as covert bargaining chips in negotiations, adding complexity to the situation.

Why Global Oil Prices Are Falling Instead of Rising

It is noteworthy that despite Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, global oil prices in 2025 have fallen more than 18%, marking the most severe annual decline since the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. This is because the fundamental supply and demand dynamics in the global crude oil market have fundamentally changed—oil supply has outpaced demand, and concerns over oversupply have intensified.

Therefore, even if Venezuela resumes exports to the US, its impact on global oil prices may be limited.

Summary

This oil negotiation between Venezuela and the US appears to be a commercial deal on the surface but is essentially an inevitable result of political upheaval. Regime change has broken the old confrontation pattern, and the reality of halted oil exports has left the new regime with no choice. Wall Street’s optimistic outlook reflects market recognition of this shift.

It may signal Venezuela’s return to the international oil market, but the real complexity lies in the hidden Bitcoin reserves, US sanctions policy adjustments, and the backdrop of declining global oil prices. The key going forward is whether the negotiations can translate into actual oil export flows and whether the new regime can leverage this cooperation to obtain enough foreign exchange income to alleviate the economic crisis.