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Currently, market sentiment is relatively weak, with the Fear & Greed index hovering around 30-35. Retail investors and institutions are both reducing their positions. In terms of capital flow, the large net outflow on January 7 was particularly obvious, with BTC contracts losing 933 million in 24 hours, indicated by a large red bar. There are many reasons behind this—tax losses accumulated in Q4, year-end account adjustments, and leveraged liquidations, all stacking up together.
On-chain data does not show signs of panic selling; long-term holders (LTH) remain steady, and whales are quietly accumulating. However, short-term pressure is significant, with frequent large transfers, slight ETF outflows, and combined with Federal Reserve remarks and escalating geopolitical tensions, market risk appetite has noticeably declined. The most painful part is that there are no new positive news to absorb the selling; the market is simply falling without any particular reason.