After Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was detained, Polymarket traders have factored in the increased risk of the Iranian regime. Against the backdrop of nationwide protests and escalating external threats, the likelihood of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei being deposed before the end of the year has surged to 56%, up 21 percentage points. The market-implied probability has gradually risen from 22% in January to 56% in December, indicating that the market expects Iran to remain unstable in the long term rather than collapse imminently.