Daily Report 2026.1.9

In the past couple of days, both the US stock market and the crypto market have experienced slight fluctuations, with market focus primarily on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Tonight, the US will release the latest non-farm employment data. Based on current conditions, whether the unemployment rate rises or falls, it will be considered good news.

If the unemployment rate increases, it will heighten expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. If it decreases, it indicates that the US economy remains quite resilient, with no recession risk.

However, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in January is low. According to data from CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in January is only 13.8%.

Whether the Fed will cut rates in March depends on the game between Trump and the Federal Reserve.

Yesterday, Bessent stated that Trump will announce the list of candidates for the new Federal Reserve Chair in January, likely around the time of his speech at Davos, which is approximately January 26.

If a new list of Fed candidates is released, it will boost market expectations for a rate cut.

Another more important event is that today, the Supreme Court will announce its ruling on Trump's tariffs.

If the court finds the tariffs illegal, it will help ease US inflation and also be favorable for the Fed to consider rate cuts.

But for Trump, this could be uncomfortable, as it might hurt his approval ratings. It remains to be seen whether he will come up with any new tricks.

From on-chain data, it appears that currently, short-term holders are mainly selling, while most early investors are watching from the sidelines, so overall selling pressure is not significant.

Looking at the recent year's exchange BTC holdings data, the amount of BTC held on exchanges has been decreasing, indicating that more people want to hold BTC than sell.

Even as BTC price has been fluctuating around $88,000 for a long time, exchange holdings continue to decline.

In fact, during the recent two-day price surge, holdings kept decreasing, showing that most investors remain optimistic.

Recently, Cathie Wood mentioned in an interview that Trump will ultimately buy 1 million BTC.

She believes the mid-term elections in 2026 are crucial, and Trump does not want to end his term as a powerless president.

If Bitcoin is incorporated into the US strategic reserves, and purchased with real money rather than through confiscation, it could help him garner more support.

She also admits that the previous efforts by the Trump family to hold coins through listed companies, like MicroStrategy, did not meet expectations.

On the ETH side, MicroStrategy's BMNR recently deposited over 1 million ETH into Ethereum's PoS staking, bringing the total to 1,032,000 ETH, worth approximately $3.215 billion.

This accounts for exactly one-quarter of their total ETH holdings (4.143 million).

Thanks to their staking, the queue of ETH waiting to be staked has grown to 1,778,000 ETH, while the withdrawal queue has been completely cleared, which is a positive sign for ETH.