CryptoQuant CEO: Bitcoin's New Fund Inflows Dry Up, Market May Enter Months of "Sideways Consolidation"

According to the latest analysis by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, the Bitcoin market has not, as some anticipated, headed towards a crash or a rapid bull run after the intense volatility at the end of 2025. Instead, it is more likely to enter a prolonged and "boring" sideways consolidation phase. He believes the fundamental reason lies in a structural change in the market.

Ki points out that the core characteristic of the current market is the exhaustion of new fund inflows. Although capital is not flowing into Bitcoin, it is rotating into traditional assets such as stocks and commodities. However, the shift in capital flow trends also weakens the effectiveness of previous cycle patterns.

Taking the Strategy holding approximately 673,000 Bitcoins as an example, such long-term institutional holders are unlikely to sell off in large quantities, making it difficult for the market to replicate the depth and panic-driven declines seen in past bear markets.

This view is also supported by on-chain data observed by CryptoZeno. Analysis shows that the Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator indicates that Bitcoin is currently in an early accumulation transition zone, meaning the market has not yet entered a frenzy phase.

Additionally, according to Glassnode's on-chain weekly report, after the correction since October last year, profit-taking pressure has eased, derivatives positions have been cleared, and the flow of funds into the US spot ETF has begun to show net inflows, making the overall market structure healthier.

However, there remains divergence in market outlooks. Optimists like Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believe that if regulatory prospects become clearer and macro markets stabilize, Bitcoin's recovery trend in 2026 could continue; cautious analysts warn that there are still downside risks in the coming months, although short-term declines may be limited.

Overall, in the absence of large-scale new capital driving the market and with long-term holders locking in significant liquidity, Bitcoin may not repeat the cyclical pattern of sharp rises and falls of the past. Instead, it could enter a "boring" phase where time is used to absorb floating supply through oscillations. This requires investors to adjust expectations, shifting from chasing short-term volatility to longer-term strategic positioning.

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