JPMorgan reveals bottom signal: Bitcoin correction nearing the end, institutional de-risking almost complete

JPMorgan’s latest report indicates that the current Bitcoin price correction may be nearing its end. As the outflow of spot ETF funds continues to slow, the previous concentrated selling pressure in the crypto market is significantly weakening, and Bitcoin’s price is gradually stabilizing around $94,000. Analysts believe that, barring any new systemic shocks, retail investors’ selling behavior is likely to gradually conclude within this cycle.

Institutional De-risking Process Nears Completion

JPMorgan analyst Nicholas Panigirtzoglou points out in the report that key changes since January 2026 are gradually becoming evident. The outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs continues to shrink, reflecting a clear slowdown in institutional investors’ selling pace.

More importantly, signals from the futures market suggest that the de-risking process is close to completion. According to JPMorgan’s analysis, the position data and momentum indicators for Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) show that the de-risking of institutional and leveraged funds is nearing its end. This implies that the large-scale passive sell-off wave may have already passed, and the market is entering a relatively stable phase.

The Correction Stems from Structural Factors, Not Fundamentals Deterioration

The true reason behind this correction warrants attention. JPMorgan emphasizes that recent market declines are not driven by on-chain or liquidity crises; overall market liquidity remains relatively healthy. The core trigger for this correction is more related to structural factors at the index level.

Specifically, MSCI signaled in October 2025 that it was considering removing certain crypto-related companies from its indices. This expectation initially triggered risk hedging and early reduction of passive positions, putting downward pressure on market sentiment. However, MSCI later confirmed that in the February 2026 global stock index rebalancing, crypto-related companies would not be excluded. This decision significantly reduces the likelihood of forced selling caused by index rebalancing.

Multiple Factors Together Support a Bottom

Several factors are currently stacking up to support Bitcoin’s price:

• ETF fund flows are stabilizing and no longer continuously outflowing
• Futures positions are returning to neutral, with de-risking nearing completion
• Uncertainty at the index level is diminishing, with MSCI’s decision providing a buffer
• Market liquidity remains healthy
• On-chain and fundamental indicators show no signs of deterioration

These factors are collectively underpinning Bitcoin’s price, boosting market confidence that a “phase bottom” is forming.

Future Trends and Institutional Expectations

According to the latest information, institutional expectations for Bitcoin in 2026 are somewhat divided. JPMorgan estimates a target price of $170,000, while Standard Chartered and Bernstein look at $150,000. Optimists foresee $200,000–$250,000, while conservative estimates range from $110,000 to $135,000. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $90,563, leaving significant room for upward movement toward these targets.

From institutional behavior, although short-term volatility may still occur, the main risks of this correction have been gradually absorbed by the market. The key question is whether new systemic shocks will emerge in the future — this will be crucial in determining whether the bottom is truly stable.

Summary

JPMorgan’s report conveys three core signals: first, institutional de-risking is nearing completion, and the large-scale sell-off wave is likely over; second, this correction originated from structural factors like index adjustments rather than fundamental deterioration, with market liquidity remaining healthy; third, multiple supporting factors are in the process of building a phase bottom, but vigilance for new systemic risks remains essential. For investors, the key is to distinguish between a “technical bottom” and a “true bottom” — the former may already be close, but the latter requires more time and further market performance to confirm.