Tonight at 21:30 Beijing time, the first major data release of 2026 is coming — the December US Non-Farm Payrolls report. This data will have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market.

Here's the background: Last month, due to government shutdowns and federal employees resigning with buyouts, the data was highly volatile. This time, the market generally expects around 60,000 new jobs added, and the unemployment rate is expected to fall back to 4.5% due to technical factors. It sounds promising, but there is a hidden risk point.

Fed Chair Powell recently hinted that official data might be overstated. In other words, the actual unemployment situation could be more severe than the published figures. This means that the unemployment rate is the real key to tonight’s outcome — if it fails to drop below 4.5% and instead remains at a high of 4.6%, the "Sam Rule" will be triggered, which is seen as a recession signal in the market, potentially leading to widespread panic.

Conversely, if the data meets or exceeds expectations, it will confirm that the labor market is "cooling down in an orderly manner" rather than collapsing, which will help ease concerns about a hard economic landing.

Interestingly, the probability of the Federal Reserve holding steady in January has already been priced in at 88.4%. Under this expectation, the market’s real focus is whether the data can confirm the actual state of the labor market. For crypto investors, this report will directly influence the direction of risk assets.