#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Important Reminder: Non-Farm Night Preparations! Bitcoin drops below $91,000 again—Is this the final low or a short-term correction?

When market attention is fully focused on macroeconomic data that determines its fate, prices usually react honestly and immediately. On the eve of Friday’s Non-Farm Employment Report, Bitcoin’s price trend has already revealed market anxiety and unease.
On the morning of January 8 Beijing time, under heavy macroeconomic pressure, the cryptocurrency market continued its overnight weakness. As the market officially enters the core phase of “Non-Farm Week,” tense expectations around the data have completely suppressed any attempts at technical rebounds. The market is “voting with its feet,” and the possibility of strong employment data is being priced in early. When uncertainty peaks, safe-haven and cautious sentiments dominate.
Fear spreads, risk appetite declines
Before the US December Non-Farm Employment Report is released on January 9 (Friday), the market has entered a “quiet exam” phase, where even minor fluctuations can be amplified into panic.
● Key Breakthrough: Bitcoin’s price has been under continuous pressure overnight and this morning, not only breaking below $92,000 but also falling below the $91,000 level for the first time since early January. This technical breakthrough is significant, indicating that the rebound structure that started last week has been completely dismantled, and market focus is gradually shifting downward.
● Market Sentiment: Data shows the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index is at 42. Although it has improved from last week’s extreme fear level, it remains in the “fear” zone. On the eve of major macro events, such sentiment can easily turn into selling pressure. From a capital flow perspective, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently experienced net outflows, while Ethereum ETFs continue to flow in, indicating divergence and caution among institutional investors regarding core assets.
● Correlation Impact: Not only cryptocurrencies, but global markets also showed typical “safe-haven” characteristics overnight: the US dollar strengthened, and precious metals ( gold, silver ) collectively plummeted, with industrial metals and crude oil also declining simultaneously. This indicates that the current market-driving logic is macroeconomic and global, and crypto assets are not immune.
Bitcoin’s collapse at key levels quickly shifts technical outlook to bearish dominance.
Technical Analysis: 4-hour support levels have been lost, targeting the monthly open price. On daily and 4-hour charts, Bitcoin’s trend has issued clear bearish signals.
● Key Breakthrough: Support at $92,155 was broken. When Bitcoin approached $91,000, it actually broke below the key support level of $92,155 on the 4-hour chart. This confirms from a technical perspective that downward momentum has strengthened.
● Downside Targets and Path: After this breakout, the next potential target for bears is around $87,600, close to the January monthly open price. Before reaching this target, a temporary psychological support may form around $90,500. If the price rebounds from this level but fails to re-establish above $92,000, it may just be a correction within the downtrend.
● Resistance Above: The previous support has now turned into strong resistance. The $92,000–$92,500 zone will be a “ceiling” that short-term rebounds will find difficult to break through. Only a re-break above $96,500 can reverse the current bearish structure and turn bullish.
Market News Analysis: Everything revolves around Non-Farm, macro tightening expectations continue to ferment
All current market narratives revolve around a core event: the US December Non-Farm Employment Report.
This data, scheduled for release on Friday Beijing time, is seen as a “weather vane” for Federal Reserve policy.
1. Macro Narrative Dominance: Since this week, geopolitical risks and industry news have taken a back seat. The market logic is very clear: any hints or expectations of a strong US economy ( supporting prolonged high interest rates ) will directly suppress all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The overnight plunge in precious metals reflects market expectations of “longer-term high interest rates.”
2. Pessimistic Forward Signals: Although the official “Major Non-Farm” data has not yet been released, market sentiment has already been dominated by early leaked strong expectations. Some analysts forecast December added 216,000 jobs, far exceeding previous estimates. This intensifies tightening expectations and has directly led to recent early morning declines.
3. Source of Short-term Volatility: Analysts generally believe that before Friday’s data release, the market will remain highly sensitive and volatile. Every economic data point ( such as the earlier released ISM Services Index ) can trigger intense reactions. The high beta nature of cryptocurrencies is fully amplified in this process.
Market Outlook: Waiting for Data Release, Caution for Two Scenarios
The market will enter a “heartbeat” mode driven by event risk, with high volatility but the direction entirely dependent on the data.
● Strong Data, Meets or Exceeds Expectations: This is the “baseline scenario.” If the data confirms a hot employment market, “tightening trades” will dominate, and Bitcoin may dip to $90,000 or even $88,000–$87,600 zone. Rebound will be very difficult.
● Unexpected Weakness: This will create a significant “expectation gap.” If employment data is far below expectations, hopes for early rate cuts will reignite, potentially triggering a rebound in risk assets. Bitcoin’s main target will be to re-establish above $92,000. However, given current market expectations, this scenario is less likely. Until the data is clear, any directional bets are essentially gambling. The safest strategy is to significantly reduce positions and stay on the sidelines. Aggressive traders betting on a rebound from weak data must wait for clear reversal signals ( such as a long lower shadow at key support levels with increased volume ), and set strict stop-losses.
Summary and Reminder
In the face of macroeconomic trends, technical charts are sometimes just small boats. Respect the market’s chosen direction—this is always better than going against the trend. The morning crash has told us in the most direct way: the market is preparing for the worst macro scenario ( strong employment and continued tightening ). From a technical perspective, losing $92,000 ( BTC ) has handed short-term initiative to the bears. At this critical moment that will set the macro tone for the first quarter, follow the principle of “more patience, less action.”
1. Cash is King, Wait for Opportunities: Before Friday’s non-farm data release, reduce your holdings to the minimum and hold enough cash. The current market volatility is extreme; waiting for confirmation is wiser than risking in the storm.
2. Abandon Bottom-Fishing Fantasies: When macro data dominates the trend, support levels are very fragile. Don’t try to “catch the bottom” in a downtrend; true bottoms usually require dual confirmation from data and price.
3. Prepare for Data Reactions: Plan your response strategy after the data is released—whether to wait, follow, or reverse. Develop a trading plan and then wait for the market to give answers.
4. Watch Related Markets: Keep a close eye on the immediate reactions of US stocks, the US dollar index, and US bond yields. After the data release, these traditional markets will provide key guidance for the trend of crypto assets.