Dual risks intertwine tonight: how will non-farm payrolls and tariff decisions shake up the market?

The US December Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released tonight at 21:30, and simultaneously, the US Supreme Court will also make a ruling this Friday on the legality of Trump’s tariff policies. These two major events occurring within just 24 hours have significantly increased market uncertainty. This not only impacts the Federal Reserve’s policy path but could also reshape the global trade landscape, thereby affecting risk sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

Non-Farm Data: A Key Window to Assess Economic Resilience

Expected Data vs. Previous Revisions

According to median forecasts by economists, the US December job gains are expected to be 73,000, higher than November’s 64,000, with the unemployment rate projected to decrease from 4.6% to 4.5%. While this data appears positive, market focus extends beyond these figures.

There is considerable divergence among institutions’ forecasts for December ADP employment (private sector employment data):

The wide range of these predictions reflects differing market assessments of the economic situation.

Market Significance Behind the Data

Non-farm payrolls are not only employment indicators but also crucial references for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. Stronger-than-expected employment growth could reinforce expectations of the Fed maintaining higher interest rates; conversely, weaker data might boost expectations for rate cuts. This directly influences the strength of the US dollar and global asset allocation.

Relevant reports indicate that markets are more concerned with “previous value revisions”—November data may be revised downward, which could alter perceptions of the labor market’s true resilience. Larger revisions might signal insufficient economic growth momentum, which is unfavorable for risk assets.

Tariff Ruling: Major Uncertainty in Policy Variables

77% Probability of “Illegality”

There is a 77% chance that the US Supreme Court will rule President Trump’s global tariff policies as illegal this Friday. This probability, derived from market expectations, suggests that investors generally believe the court may impose limits on executive authority.

Market Impact of Two Possible Outcomes

If tariffs are deemed illegal: Trade policy uncertainty would significantly decrease, potentially restoring relative stability to global supply chains. However, this could also hinder Trump’s trade agenda, leading to lowered market expectations for policy enforcement.

If tariffs are upheld as legal: Risks of escalating global trade tensions increase, inflation expectations may rise again, and the Fed’s policy path could face new variables.

Cumulative Effects of Dual Risks

Trigger Points for Market Volatility

The rapid succession of non-farm data release and tariff rulings within 24 hours constitutes a “risk event window.” Markets tend to fluctuate around major data releases, and the convergence of these two events could amplify market reactions.

According to related reports, economists have explicitly stated that non-farm data impacts the Treasury bond market far more than other background noise. This indicates that the market’s focus remains on the fundamentals of the US economy.

Indirect Impact on Cryptocurrency Markets

Although these are macroeconomic events, they influence the crypto market through multiple transmission channels:

• Dollar Strength/Weakness: Strong employment data + high policy certainty may strengthen the dollar, which is unfavorable for dollar-denominated cryptocurrencies.
• Risk Sentiment: Weak economic data or high policy uncertainty can suppress demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
• Liquidity Expectations: Changes in the Fed’s policy path directly affect the global liquidity environment.

Reports mention that Bitcoin ETFs have recently seen strong inflows ($697 million in a single day), reflecting institutional interest in risk assets. Whether this momentum can be maintained after these dual risk events depends on the specific outcomes of the data and rulings.

Key Points to Watch

Personal Viewpoint

From a market structure perspective, the key lies in “expectation management.” If the non-farm data meets expectations and the tariff ruling is clear, markets may quickly digest this information. However, unexpected outcomes—such as employment far below expectations or tariffs being upheld—could trigger larger volatility.

A noteworthy opinion from Ray Dalio emphasizes that US asset valuations are excessively high and recommends heavy holdings in gold. This reflects cautious attitudes among some institutional investors regarding the US economic outlook, and such sentiment could further spread after these dual risk events.

Summary

Tonight’s non-farm employment report and this Friday’s Supreme Court tariff ruling are two pivotal events at the start of 2026. These events touch on US economic fundamentals and policy certainty, and their outcomes will reshape market expectations regarding Fed policy, trade dynamics, and global risk sentiment.

For the cryptocurrency market, the impact is indirect—primarily through the paths of the dollar, risk appetite, and liquidity. Investors should closely monitor the specific data and rulings, as well as market reactions in real-time. Short-term volatility is likely, but the long-term market direction will depend on whether these data and policies fundamentally alter economic growth and inflation prospects.