BTC potentially surges to 100k-150k or even higher?

Driving factors include institutional adoption, regulatory friendliness (continuation of the Trump era), and mainstreaming of stablecoins.

🌅 Institutions are "turning over," macro is "waiting for the wind"

"The market is not waiting for good news; it is waiting for direction. Morgan Stanley's entry and the outflow from spot ETFs happen simultaneously, which is a typical institutional rotation period: smart money is positioning for the next battleground (BTC, ETH, SOL), while panic money is being washed out of Bitcoin."

📊 Market Dashboard

BTC: $91,000 (-0.2%) | Support $90,000 / Resistance $94,000

ETH: $3,100 (-2.1%) | Support $3,050 / Resistance $3,200

Key Indicators:
📉 ETF Funds: Fidelity (FBTC) outflows of $312 million in a single day, offsetting BlackRock's buying.
⚖️ Policy Risks: The market awaits the Supreme Court's final ruling on Trump’s "tariff policy," with risk aversion slightly increasing.

🔍 Daily Focus｜Wall Street's New Battleground: SOL

Event: Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley) officially submits ETF registration applications for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. Why it matters:

Breaking the duopoly: This is the first top-tier investment bank openly betting on SOL, signaling that the "Big Three" crypto narratives are entering Wall Street's view.

Proactive move: Morgan Stanley is not acting as a distributor this time but is directly issuing products through its Investment Management division, with plans to include "staking" features.

Funding Scenario:
Short-term: SOL gains strong backing, potentially leading to outflows from ETH.
Risk: SEC approval for "staking ETFs" remains uncertain; rejection could trigger short-term pullbacks.

📰 Top News｜Key Information

1️⃣ ETF buying momentum stalls, selling pressure emerges. Fidelity (FBTC) leads redemptions, with net outflows expanding to $243 million. Profit-taking above $94,000 is very strong, and there is a lack of short-term breakout momentum.

2️⃣ New regulatory front: It is predicted that the market will face bans. U.S. Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres proposes the "2026 Financial Prediction Market Integrity Act," aiming to prohibit federal officials from participating in prediction markets (such as Polymarket), which could trigger a new wave of regulatory scrutiny over prediction platforms.

3️⃣ Banking sector targets stablecoins: The American Bankers Association (ABA) writes to the Senate warning that the "GENIUS Act" has loopholes, fearing unregulated stablecoin issuers offering high yields through "collateralized staking" could drain bank deposits.

4️⃣ Macro shadow: The Supreme Court is about to rule on Trump’s tariff policies, which will directly impact the dollar's trend and global liquidity. Bitcoin is currently consolidating around $91k , reflecting macroeconomic uncertainty pricing in.

💡 Risk Radar｜Risk Radar

⚠️ Liquidity Trap: If BTC remains in the $90k-$92k range with decreasing volume, beware of "painting the door" declines during weekend liquidity crunch.

⚠️ Altcoin Leverage: Despite a market correction, some altcoin contract holdings (OI) are not decreasing but increasing, often a precursor to chain reactions of liquidations. Avoid high-leverage longs.

📝 TL;DR｜Trader's Memo

Morgan Stanley's application for SOL ETF is a long-term super bullish signal, but short-term ETF outflows should not be ignored.

Main risk sources shift to "Washington": Tariff rulings, prediction market bans, stablecoin legislation.

Not Financial Advice: Market sentiment is mixed, volatility is increasing, watch out for leverage management.