In December, US employment added only 64,000 jobs, a figure that directly breaks the conventional 200,000-300,000 range of the past two years, and even falls below the moderate growth expectation of 150,000. The previous month also only saw 60,000 jobs added. Two consecutive months of weakness send a very clear signal that the labor market is cooling rapidly.

This is not an accidental fluctuation. The Federal Reserve's long-standing emphasis on full employment has been pierced by market reality this time. Investors immediately react— the likelihood of an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve has increased significantly. Once the rate cut cycle begins, the dollar will come under pressure, US Treasury yields will decline, safe-haven asset prices will rise, and risk assets like cryptocurrencies will see a noticeable improvement in liquidity.

But there's a trap here. The key still depends on how subsequent wage data will evolve. If wage growth also slows down in tandem, the logic for rate cuts will become even more certain, and the market will be convinced of this policy shift. But if wages remain high, the situation becomes more complicated—weak employment but persistent inflation, the Federal Reserve will face a dilemma, and policy may fluctuate, which could have a greater impact on market expectations.

There's also a detail not to overlook. Winter data is easily affected by seasonal adjustments, so it's a bit early to draw conclusions before the January non-farm payroll report is released. The true trend confirmation will require observing the data evolution over the next one or two months.

For traders, this report is an important macro turning point signal, potentially supporting valuations of risk assets like cryptocurrencies. But the risks are also obvious—markets tend to react in advance to expectations, and when the actual data is released, it might turn into a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario. If subsequent CPI data doesn't align or if Federal Reserve officials maintain a cautious tone in their statements, the previously built-up optimism could quickly dissipate, leading to intense volatility.

The current logic is this: weak employment + stable inflation is the most ideal environment for rate cuts. Employment data has indeed weakened, but whether inflation can decline simultaneously remains the key to whether the Federal Reserve will take real action. In the short term, cryptocurrencies may benefit from improved liquidity, but given the market's high volatility, ordinary investors are advised not to recklessly increase leverage. Close attention should still be paid to CPI data and the attitude changes of Federal Reserve officials—don't be blinded by fantasies of excessive easing. Opportunities are there, but timing and rhythm are equally important.