#密码资产动态追踪 The imminent Tariff Grand Trial: Wall Street in an Uproar

A court hearing that concerns the future of the US economy is counting down—can Trump's tariff policies stand firm? Various institutions are rushing to provide answers.

Interactive Brokers believes that if tariffs fail, the US manufacturing return plan will be derailed, and fiscal pressure will follow. In the end, interest rates will be pushed higher, but corporate profits might get some relief. Crossbridge's view is more direct: tariffs overturned → US dollar depreciation → steepening of the US Treasury yield curve. Bank of New York Mellon is optimistic about the stock market, especially the retail, consumer, and electronics sectors, which are expected to react swiftly.

However, JPMorgan Chase poured cold water on the optimism—fiscal issues may surface, but this president has many tricks up his sleeve, and he is likely to use legal maneuvers to reintroduce tariffs.

What about precious metals? The World Gold Council says gold prices may experience short-term volatility and corrections, but central banks' enthusiasm for buying gold remains, providing long-term support. Morgan Stanley is more optimistic: judges may not make a one-size-fits-all decision, and some tariffs might be retained. Wells Fargo presented data indicating that the S&P 500's pre-tax profit growth could reach 2.4% by 2026, suggesting potential for stock price gains.

Interestingly, Nomura Securities uncovered five alternative tax schemes proposed by the Trump administration, which are likely to replicate the current tariff system before 2027. KEY Advisors warns: if tariffs are truly reclaimed, market liquidity could suffer significant losses.

Prediction platforms provide more intuitive probabilities: Polymarket shows only a 25% chance that the Supreme Court will support tariffs, and a 26% chance of ordering refunds; Kalshi's data is even more suspenseful—the probability of completing refunds before 2027 is as high as 54%.

With this hammer coming down, will the market cheer or liquidity evaporate? The market is holding its breath.