#密码资产动态追踪 January 9th, the Digital Asset Research Team released an in-depth report on the long-term development of Bitcoin, providing price forecasts under several different scenarios.

The core data is quite interesting: the baseline scenario assumes Bitcoin accounts for 5-10% of global trade and enters central bank balance sheets (at 2.5%), with a potential price of $2.9 million by 2050, and an annual compound growth rate of about 15%. In a conservative estimate with a 2% annual increase, the price would be around $130,000 by 2050. What if it becomes truly "super Bitcoinized"—accounting for 20% of global trade and 10% of GDP—then the price could soar to $53.4 million, with a growth rate of 29%.

A key point of this report is that Bitcoin is evolving from a purely speculative asset into a strategic component of institutional portfolios. Under global high debt and currency devaluation pressures, it offers a low-correlation hedging tool.

From a allocation perspective, it is recommended that most diversified portfolios allocate 1-3% to Bitcoin. Investors with higher risk appetite can consider allocating up to 20% to optimize overall returns. This layered recommendation is quite informative for different types of participants.

In simple terms, this analysis shifts Bitcoin from a speculative object back to a rational discussion of asset allocation, which could be a significant signal for market sentiment adjustment.