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Don't just focus on betting on rate cuts or watching non-farm payrolls; the real "Gray Rhino" — the Malacca Strait crisis — is quietly approaching!
The narrowest part of the Malacca Strait is only 5.4 kilometers wide, but it handles 70% of China's crude oil imports and 40% of global trade lifelines, making it a matter of life and death for the global economy. Once the shipping lane is blocked, East Asia's "manufacturing factory" will face an energy shock, crude oil prices will jump in a stepwise manner, and secondary inflation will hit instantly. The Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates, leading to a double whammy in stocks and bonds, and the crypto market will also find it hard to remain unaffected.
Moreover, it is a crossroads for container shipping. If the route is obstructed, shipping costs and transit times will increase significantly, global manufacturing will halt, supply chain "blood clots" will occur frequently, and the currency markets will suffer devastating blows.
In such extreme uncertainty, capital will abandon overvalued tech stocks and highly leveraged cryptocurrencies, flooding into physical gold, U.S. Treasuries, and energy futures. Once the Malacca Strait faces issues, your financial models built on rate cuts, employment, and growth will collapse.
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