U.S. Employment Data Overview: Companies are cautious in hiring, with AI automation becoming a new variable

【BlockBeats】Recent data analysis has revealed an interesting phenomenon — employment growth in the US for December may be slowing down. The reasons behind this are not complicated: firstly, companies are tightening their purse strings due to import tariff pressures; secondly, ongoing high investments in AI are causing many companies to reassess their hiring strategies.

However, the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.5%, which is considered a stable signal for the market. The market generally believes that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged this month, waiting to see what the upcoming non-farm payroll data will indicate.

Interestingly, economists have found that the labor market is currently in a peculiar state of “neither hiring nor firing” — companies are not significantly expanding their workforce nor rushing to lay off employees. Sal Gattieri, an economist at Montreal Bank Capital Markets, pointed out that this is not simply due to a lack of demand. The economic performance has actually been quite good, with notable increases in GDP growth and productivity in the third quarter, largely benefiting from a surge in AI spending.

The real issue is that companies are very cautious about hiring. On one hand, they need to control costs to cope with tariff shocks; on the other hand, more companies are beginning to believe that AI-driven automation can lead to a surge in productivity. In other words, instead of spending money to hire new staff, they prefer to invest in AI to improve efficiency. This shift in attitude could have profound impacts on the upcoming employment market and economic trajectory.