Tonight's non-farm payroll data clashes with the tariff ruling, and the market is set to explode!

Brothers, pay attention. Tonight at 9:30 PM (Beijing time), the US will release the December non-farm employment data. This thing directly affects the Federal Reserve's next move, and at the same time, the Supreme Court will also make a ruling on the legality of Trump's tariff policies. Two major events colliding, it's hard for the market not to fluctuate.
First, let's talk about non-farm data. The market generally expects December's new jobs to be around 60,000 to 73,000, slightly better than November's 64,000. The unemployment rate is estimated to drop from 4.6% to 4.5%. But don't be fooled by the numbers; there might be a lot of water in there. Many are seasonal temporary jobs, basically just surface gloss. The private employment data from ADP a couple of days ago only added 41,000 jobs, even weaker than expected, indicating that companies are still quite tight-fisted in hiring.
Personally, I think if tonight's non-farm data is ridiculously weak, like new jobs directly flatlining, the market's expectation for an early Fed rate cut will definitely heat up, and risk assets might get a breather; but if the data is shockingly strong, the expectation for rate cuts will be pushed back, increasing market pressure. The most ideal scenario is a "blonde girl" type of data—just right, not too strong or too weak.
What's more exciting is that the Supreme Court's ruling today on the legality of tariffs is a huge variable. If the court strikes down the tariffs, it might short-term benefit import-dependent companies and consumers, but the White House definitely won't be willing to accept that. They will try other ways to make up for it, and long-term uncertainty remains. How these two outcomes combine will directly determine whether stocks, bonds, and forex markets soar or plummet tonight.
In short, tonight is destined to be a sleepless night. It's recommended to buckle up, control your positions, and don't get too involved in the show.