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Tonight at 21:30 (Beijing Time, Standard Time), the US December Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released. The key indicators, expectations, market impact, and actionable strategies are as follows, suitable for short-term crypto/gold trading and risk management.
1. Key Data (Previous/Expected)
- Non-Farm Employment Change: Previous 64,000; Expected 60,000-70,000 (Reuters 60,000, Bloomberg 70,000, Goldman Sachs 70,000)
- Unemployment Rate: Previous 4.6%; Expected 4.5%
- Average Hourly Earnings: MoM expected +0.3%, YoY +3.6%
- Publishing Agency: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Significance: Key reference for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, influencing rate cut expectations
2. Data and Market Impact (BTC/Gold)
- Better than expected (Non-Farm >80,000, Unemployment <4.5%, Hourly Earnings >0.3%): Negative for crypto/gold, rate cut expectations cool down → USD strengthens → BTC dips to 89,200 → 88,000; Gold faces pressure and pulls back
- In line with expectations (Non-Farm 50,000-80,000, Unemployment around 4.5%, Hourly Earnings 0.3%): Mainly sideways, limited volatility, continue current range, observe or trade according to support and resistance levels
- Worse than expected (Non-Farm <50,000, Unemployment >4.6%, Hourly Earnings <0.3%): Positive for crypto/gold, rate cut expectations heat up → BTC rises to 91,400 → 92,500; Gold rebounds