December US non-farm payroll data is about to be released, but there is a clear divergence in predictions.

The mainstream market expectation is an increase of 55,000 jobs, which sounds pretty good. However, here’s the interesting part — some analysts believe that the seasonal boost from holiday hiring could be stronger, and the new jobs number might reach 105,000. The difference between these two figures is nearly double, and the market’s dilemma is understandable.

FactSet’s data summary shows that regardless of how many new jobs are added, the unemployment rate is likely to fall back to 4.5%. Does this indicate a strong recovery in the labor market? Hold on.

EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco poured cold water on this: even if the data shows a hot job market, it shouldn’t be taken at face value. This is likely just surface-level, and the market can be easily fooled by such data. In other words — don’t be deceived by illusions.