Last night, after the release of the non-farm payroll data, the market reaction was quite interesting. Although the data did not meet expectations, in the eyes of industry insiders, it actually served as a reassurance—markets that needed to panic already did so, and those who should remain calm have long since settled down.

To understand this phenomenon, we must first clarify the Federal Reserve's decision-making logic. Rate cuts are never decided based on one or two data points but follow a clear priority order. Ranked by importance: big non-farm payrolls > CPI > PCE > small non-farm payrolls. In other words, last night's small non-farm payroll report was just a appetizer; the real factor that will determine the subsequent direction is the big non-farm payroll data on Friday.

So why does data that falls short of expectations instead stabilize market sentiment? The key is that this "below expectations" result was actually in line with expectations. Looking back at employment data over the past six months, it’s clear that the US labor market has generally been showing signs of weakness. The recent small non-farm payrolls simply continue the existing trend, not a sudden anomaly.

More importantly, the current crypto market landscape has already changed. Institutional funds continue to increase their share, and market participants are paying more attention to long-term trends rather than being led by fluctuations in a single data point. This emotional maturity allows the market to digest data calmly, avoiding the unnecessary volatility of the past that often caused panic.

From this perspective, as long as the downward trend remains intact, the overall direction of the rate cut cycle remains steady. For long-term participants in crypto assets, this is undoubtedly a positive signal.