Tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls data will be released, and many people are just guessing wildly based on the new employment figures, often getting a harsh lesson from the market.

In fact, Non-Farm is far more than just simple data comparison; essentially, it's a high-stakes game of market sentiment. There are three key things to watch at 21:30: new employment numbers, unemployment rate, and year-over-year wage growth. These three indicators ultimately point to a core question—will the Federal Reserve accelerate the pace of rate cuts next?

The logical chain is quite clear: the weaker the economic fundamentals, the stronger the market’s expectation of rate cuts; conversely, if the economy remains stable, rate cuts will be pushed further back.

The current mainstream market expectation is as follows: the unemployment rate in November stays at 4.6%, with December’s new employment expected to be around 55,000, and the unemployment rate may fluctuate between 4.6% and 4.7%.

What counts as a positive signal? If the unemployment rate breaks above 4.7% or the new employment data is significantly below expectations—at this point, expectations for rate cuts will quickly heat up, benefiting such risk assets. Conversely, if new employment surges while the unemployment rate remains low, the probability of rate cuts decreases, and the market may adjust due to shattered expectations.

But beware of a trap: don’t impulsively jump in at the first sign. Experienced traders are watching three things—whether the unexpected data is truly surprising, whether the initial market moves are just smoke screens set by big players, and whether there’s a substantial shift in rate expectations.

The easiest target for non-farm to harvest is impulsive traders. Instead of obsessing over whether to go long or short, it’s better to first understand what the market is currently expecting and what it fears.