The recent market pattern has returned—first a rebound and surge, then a sharp drop. Bitcoin has now slipped to 89,000, and Ethereum has retreated to 3,000. Overall, the market remains volatile with no clear direction.

Let's look at the January interest rate cut expectations. According to Fedwatch tool data, the probability is only 11.6%. Honestly, a rate cut in the short term seems unlikely.

What about 2026? Market prediction platforms like Polymarket provide the following data:
- The highest probability is for 2 rate cuts (a total of 50 basis points), about 28%
- The second most likely is 3 rate cuts (a total of 75 basis points), approximately 22%
- 4 or more rate cuts have a lower probability, below 17%

But there's an interesting piece of information recently—Federal Reserve Board member Milan issued a strong statement, saying that in 2026, there will be a 150 basis point rate cut. According to his plan, this would create 1 million jobs while not triggering inflation.

That number is quite bold. If it's really 150 basis points, that would be twice the above predictions. Assuming 3 rate cuts, each would be about 50 basis points. This possibility currently seems a bit unlikely unless the economy experiences a large-scale downturn or unemployment rises sharply.

Since he mentioned increasing employment, we’ll see the answer tonight—the December unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data are about to be released.

The market currently expects an unemployment rate of 4.5% (previously 4.6%) and non-farm payrolls of 60,000 (previously 64,000).

These two data points are critical. If tonight’s data is disappointing, indicating economic weakening, combined with a dovish Fed stance, it will be favorable for risk assets. Conversely, if the data is strong and the Fed signals a hawkish stance, the situation could reverse. This will be the key focus moving forward.