Bitcoin aims to reach $90,000 despite year-end selling pressure from institutional investors

ETF Capital Outflows Accelerate but Physical Demand Maintains Support

As of December 30, Bitcoin (BTC) rose to $89,340 on Coinbase US. This rebound occurs amid the year-end adjustment period and is approaching one of the largest single-day gains in the past 10 days. While this movement may seem contradictory at first glance, interesting shifts in capital flows are occurring beneath the surface of the market.

In the US Bitcoin spot ETF, a net outflow of approximately $1.886 billion occurred throughout December. Notably, over the last 8 days (December 18–30), about $1.1 billion was withdrawn, indicating that portfolio adjustments based on tax optimization strategies peaked during the final week of the year. As Tom Lee of Bitmine pointed out, selling pressure from institutional investors is significantly impacting crypto-related stocks and BTC prices.

Despite this, Bitcoin repeatedly tests the mid-$86,000 range and shows signs of rebound, implying the presence of other buyers. This structure is key to understanding the essence of the year-end market.

Risk Aversion Flows from Altcoins to Bitcoin

During periods of low market liquidity at year-end, trader behavior follows a typical pattern. Funds shift from riskier assets to Bitcoin, which is considered more liquid and relatively safer. This capital rotation is clearly reflected in statistical data.

Bitcoin dominance has increased from 58.50% on November 26 to 59.66% at the time of writing. This means Bitcoin’s share of the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is rising, confirming steady fund movement away from altcoins. In phases of reduced risk appetite, Bitcoin tends to maintain its advantage, and this pattern is repeating now.

This mechanism explains why Bitcoin has maintained the support level of $85,000 over the past month despite net outflows from ETFs. The balance between institutional selling and buying by individuals and hedge funds is delicate but stable.

Derivatives Market Indicates “Physical-Led” Rebound

Data from Coinglass on December 30 highlights the core of this upward phase. Total derivatives trading volume dropped 30.59% to $66.34 billion, and open interest decreased by 1.85% to $56.6 billion. Options trading volume also fell 35.46% to $2.24 billion.

This directly indicates a retreat in speculative leverage trading. The near-neutral long/short ratio of 0.99 suggests that bearish positions accumulated over several days have been unwound, returning market participants’ positions to equilibrium.

Importantly, while trading volume has significantly decreased, the reduction in open interest has been limited. This suggests that no new excessive leverage has built up, confirming a solid, physical-led upward phase. Leverage-driven rallies tend to reverse quickly when funding conditions change, but price increases based on physical demand tend to be more sustainable, especially in environments where Bitcoin dominance is rising.

Psychological Turning Point Ahead of 2026

If Bitcoin’s current price continues to hover around $88,000, a clear breakout above $90,000 becomes increasingly plausible. At that point, investors who have been cautious during the year-end holiday may be prompted to review and adjust their positions in anticipation of the new fiscal year 2026.

Market sentiment is subtly shifting. While selling pressure remains, signs of weakening momentum are emerging. Meanwhile, buy-side demand at the bottom around $86,000 continues to be confirmed. In this tug-of-war, it is quite possible for Bitcoin to test the next resistance level.

However, the biggest risk factor remains the ongoing ETF capital flows from institutional investors. A large-scale outflow could again hinder attempts to break higher, and the market’s liquidity during the year-end and New Year period will heavily influence the unfolding of this scenario.