Why the EU energy agreement with the USA has not been upheld so far: The 750-billion-euro bill doesn't add up

The European Union had committed, to the surprise of many, to spend 750 billion dollars (approximately 720 billion euros) on American energy raw materials over the next three years. However, the current record shows: the ambitious goal is already failing in reality.

The numbers tell a different story

Between September and December of last year, the EU even spent seven percent less on oil and gas imports from the US than in the same period of the previous year – despite increased volumes. The reason is obvious: prices for American energy carriers have fallen. With a total of 29.6 billion dollars, the quarterly balance was significantly below expectations.

For the entire year 2025, the EU’s total expenditures amount to only 73.7 billion dollars. That’s not even one-third of the 250 billion dollars needed annually to reach the 750-billion-euro target by 2028. Gillian Boccara, Senior Director at Kpler, a consulting firm for energy supplies, summarized it concisely: “The math just doesn’t add up.”

Infrastructure and markets are not ready

An often-overlooked key factor: even if the EU replaced every molecule of Russian gas with American liquefied natural gas, this would only increase annual import values to about 29 billion dollars – just 23 percent of the required volume.

Market analysts at Argus Media have revealed an uncomfortable truth: to reach the target, gas prices would need to climb to 37.3 dollars per million BTU by 2028. That’s four times the current futures prices of about 8.2 dollars. For comparison: these price levels were last reached in December 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a massive energy crisis.

Adding to this is the physical reality: the EU would need to expand its import capacity by more than 50 percent. The US would have to more than double its export infrastructure. New regasification terminals, storage tanks, and pipelines – none of these can be realized in the short term.

What is really behind it?

Analysts suspect that the entire agreement has less to do with actual energy commitments and more to serve as a diplomatic instrument – possibly as a delaying tactic until the geopolitical situation normalizes again. The market seems to share this skepticism: as the US, Qatar, and Canada expand their production, price declines are expected, further dampening demand.

The EU Commission, on the other hand, claims that in the first eleven months of 2025, it has already spent 200 billion euros (236 billion dollars) on American energy raw materials and has signed new long-term LNG contracts. However, it remains unclear how many of these future orders are already included in these figures.

The message is clear: the $750 billion promise will not be fulfilled under current conditions. It is less a genuine energy strategy than a political promise with an uncertain future.