Tuesday's Wheat Futures Rally: Managed Money Shifts, Export Momentum Picks Up

Wheat futures are posting solid Tuesday gains across multiple contracts, with the complex demonstrating newfound strength heading into the midweek session. Chicago SRW futures have climbed 1-2 cents, while Kansas City HRW contracts are posting more aggressive moves in the 4-5.5 cent range. Minneapolis spring wheat is also participating in the rally with fractional advances, suggesting broad-based strength in the wheat complex.

Export Data Fuels Bullish Sentiment

The latest USDA Export Sales report has provided key support for the market. Total wheat export commitments now stand at 20.108 MMT, representing an 18% year-over-year increase compared to the same week last year. This level equates to 82% of the USDA’s full-year export forecast and sits slightly behind the historical 82% pace, indicating traders remain moderately confident about achieving annual targets.

Meanwhile, European Commission data reveals 11.18 MMT of wheat exports from July 1 through January 4—a 0.17 MMT decline versus the prior year. The softer European export pace contrasts with stronger North American activity, potentially supporting U.S. wheat demand narratives.

Managed Money Positioning Shifts Signal Caution

The most recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report offers insight into speculative behavior. As of December 30, managed money has increased their net short position in CBOT wheat futures and options to 94,626 contracts—a move suggesting some institutional hedging activity. In Kansas City wheat, spec funds held a net short of 18,319 contracts last Tuesday, down 6,430 contracts from the previous week, pointing to modest position reduction.

Weather Keeps Supply Dynamics in Focus

NOAA’s 7-day forecast projects 1-2 inches of precipitation across much of the SRW production belt, with minimal rainfall expected for select Southern Plains areas. This pattern remains favorable for winter wheat development in key growing regions while highlighting the continued importance of moisture distribution.

Tuesday’s Contract Pricing Overview

The strength is reflected across the calendar spread. March CBOT wheat is trading at $5.13 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents, with May CBOT wheat at $5.24 1/4, up 3/4 cent. Kansas City contracts show larger advances: March KCBT wheat at $5.26 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents, and May KCBT wheat at $5.37 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents. Minneapolis spring wheat contracts are modestly higher, with March at $5.71 3/4, up 1/2 cent, and May at $5.82 1/4, also up 1/2 cent.

The outperformance of KCBT contracts relative to CBOT reflects the market’s recognition of distinct supply-demand dynamics between hard red winter and soft red winter varieties heading into the new year.