Recently, a bunch of people have been asking me the same question—can this Bitcoin rally still continue? Should I push for six figures? Seeing these messages, I feel a bit helpless. Too many new retail investors are being driven by FOMO emotions, rushing to buy at the top. And what’s the result? Most likely, they get caught and harvested. Having been active in the crypto market for many years, today I’ll honestly share what I’ve observed about the upcoming month’s trend. This isn’t a post-hoc analysis, but based on actual technical and capital flow analysis. What I share might help you avoid a few big pitfalls.

**Two signals from the technical side, one good, one a trap**

Let’s start with the weekly chart. In recent weeks, the lows have been steadily rising, climbing step by step. The MACD indicator is also showing signs of movement from the lows, about to form a golden cross. At first glance, this indeed looks like a bullish signal, with downward momentum waning. But here’s a key point—this rally is actually a B-wave rebound on the weekly level. What does that mean? It indicates that this is a breathing space during a larger downtrend, not a trend reversal. Wave theory players know that after a B-wave, there must be a C-wave, which typically involves further decline. This isn’t alarmist talk; it’s an objective market law.

Now, let’s look at the daily chart. It shows repeated oscillations, with prices trying to push higher, and the lows gradually rising, which looks quite strong. But where’s the problem? The trading volume and actual buying power of the bulls have never kept pace with the price increase. Simply put, volume and price are mismatched. It’s like someone running—looking like they’re sprinting forward, but actually gasping for breath and exhausted. Such a rally is hard to sustain. Some believe it can surge past 100,000, but my personal judgment is that it’s unlikely. The 100,000 mark is probably the ceiling for this rebound.

**Capital flow is sounding the alarm**

Technical analysis is just the surface; the real determinant is the flow of funds. Recently, the main capital movements have been quite strange—large sums quietly reducing their positions at high levels. Although the market appears to be rising on the surface, this is a typical “fake rally” phenomenon. Retail investors chase after gains, while big players are actually pulling out. Such a structure usually doesn’t end well.

Moreover, market sentiment indicators are also reaching a peak. The greed index is nearly saturated, indicating most people have already entered the market, with little new capital coming in. Historically, when sentiment hits a peak, it’s often a sign of upcoming risk.

**Overall assessment: Probabilities for the next move**

Combining the B-wave characteristics on the technical side and the capital reduction signals, my judgment is this: in the short term, Bitcoin will likely test the 100,000 resistance again, but the chance of breaking through is not high. If it fails to break effectively, a sharp decline could follow. Because at that point, retail investors who bought high will form a large pile of trapped positions, and once they start to panic and sell, a stampede effect could occur.

So my simple advice is: if you’ve already taken profits during this rebound, it’s better to lock in gains. If you haven’t entered yet, rather than chasing high here and risking losses, wait for a dip to re-enter. The risk-reward ratio will be more favorable. Opportunities in the crypto market are plentiful; there’s no need to participate in every wave, especially when the pattern isn’t yet clear.

Remember a simple logic: chasing the rally with emotion and making decisions based on science are two different things. FOMO won’t make you big money; it often leads to big losses.