$BTC and US stocks may soon enter a clearing phase. Here is a bold prediction of the upcoming trend and rhythm.

**Currently, three key risk points**

First, the U.S. Supreme Court may rule on tariff policies tonight. The core issue is not about legality but whether to restore the tariff status from the previous year. If Trump’s side loses, he may push to amend the law as a countermeasure. The market’s specific reaction is hard to predict, but logically, the Supreme Court is unlikely to let tariff policies revert completely to the past, given the significant impact on politics and the economy.

Second, the Middle East situation. If the U.S. launches an attack on Iran, the scale and duration of the war become variables. Initially, markets tend to be bearish at the start of conflict, but if the conflict escalates quickly or prolongs, the market may turn bullish again. This is an uncertain factor.

Third, the U.S. government budget issue. Last October, a government shutdown occurred due to bipartisan disagreements. Currently, there is no consensus on the healthcare budget bill, and the short-term budget will expire on January 30. If disagreements continue, there is a risk of another government shutdown. A greater possibility is that both parties will pass another short-term budget extension to delay further, but this remains a variable at the moment.

**Technical outlook: signs of a breakout are forming**

The MACD of the Nasdaq 100 is building momentum, and the RSI has not yet reached 70. US stocks seem to be attempting to break through the upper resistance level. The weekly MACD for BTC is gradually weakening its decline; whether it can hold above 95 is the next focus.

**Risks and opportunities**

Unless a major negative event suddenly occurs, each risk resolution may be accompanied by upward momentum. But it’s important to guard against a quick pullback on the day risks materialize. At the same time, it’s necessary to clarify a reality: the liquidity environment determines that a rapid bull market is unlikely in the short term. The current rhythm is like this.

Rather than obsessing over daily directions and repeatedly cutting losses or chasing rallies, it’s better to patiently wait for confirmation signals.