Recently, there's an interesting phenomenon in the market—US stocks with AI concepts are fluctuating at high levels, bonds are being squeezed by fiscal expansion, but funds are flowing heavily into traditional assets like gold, silver, copper, and aluminum. It sounds counterintuitive, but upon closer reflection, each asset has its own risks, and resource commodities are currently benefiting from a confluence of short-, medium-, and long-term favorable factors.

In the short term, market expectations for liquidity easing are quite strong. The RMP (Reserve Management Purchase) launched in December last year initially drew little attention, but the commodity markets had already sensed it—silver and gold prices rose, along with copper and petrochemicals, indicating that the improvement in liquidity expectations is coming to fruition.

Looking at the medium term, the logic becomes even clearer. New infrastructure projects like AI data centers, renewable energy grids, and electric vehicles are major consumers of metals. According to the International Energy Agency, global copper demand is expected to increase by over 20% by 2030 compared to 2024. Additionally, if the US dollar weakens, resource prices denominated in USD will naturally rise.

Over longer cycles, resource competition between nations also comes into play. Countries are stockpiling key metals as strategic reserves, with export controls becoming increasingly strict. Resources are no longer just cyclical commodities but strategic assets, with higher barriers to access and completely different price resilience.

Therefore, the current rise in resource commodities is not just a simple cyclical fluctuation but the result of overlapping influences from monetary attributes, industrial demand, and strategic value. While gold and silver have indeed seen good gains, the most resilient may still be silver, copper, and aluminum—commodities that combine financial attributes with industrial demand. However, it’s important to note that short-term enthusiasm has already accumulated quite a bit; caution is advised when prices surge, and a phased approach to positioning will be more prudent.

Time for a sip of tea, and we’ll continue to watch how the market develops.