ETH liquidation intensity reveals market risk: 3 key price points determine the fate of $2.2 billion

According to the latest data, Ethereum has two clear high-leverage liquidation peaks in its future trend. If ETH drops below $3,149, the cumulative long liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $2.211 billion; conversely, if it breaks through $3,476, the short liquidation strength will be $1.223 billion. Currently, ETH is trading around $3,328, situated in a relatively safe zone between these two extremes, but this precisely indicates that the market is at a sensitive equilibrium point.

Market Structure Behind Liquidation Strength

Liquidation strength data reflects the density of leveraged positions of traders at specific price points. Current data shows that long positions are significantly riskier than short positions—long liquidation strength is nearly 1.8 times that of shorts, indicating that leveraged long positions are more crowded in the market.

The True Meaning of Support and Resistance

This set of liquidation data essentially represents the market’s support and resistance levels. $3,149 is not only a technical support level but also the last line of defense for longs—once broken, it will trigger a chain of liquidations. Meanwhile, $3,476 corresponds to the dense stop-loss zone for shorts. The current price of $3,328 lies between these two levels, providing some buffer for longs but also indicating greater downside risk.

Latest Movements of Whales and Institutions

Recent market participant behaviors offer interesting signals. According to on-chain data, a “high-frequency trading” whale bought ETH worth $11 million at an average price of $3,165 on January 12, with the entry point just above the $3,149 liquidation strength level—this suggests professional traders have some confidence in the support below.

At the same time, the “largest pre-PEPE long” also bought ETH worth $17.75 million at an average price of $3,097, actively approaching the lower support. Such large traders’ building positions often reflect their judgment of the price bottom.

Additionally, 28,320 ETH have recently been transferred into the Beacon Chain deposit contract, indicating ongoing institutional long-term allocations, which hedge against short-term bullish strategies—participating in rebounds while preparing for long-term holding.

Background of Continuous Institutional Buying

Information shows that listed companies like BitMine Immersion Technologies and Bit Digital are continuously expanding their ETH holdings. These enterprise-level allocations are usually unaffected by short-term volatility and tend to accelerate during market downturns. Currently, these companies hold millions of ETH, reflecting long-term optimism about Ethereum.

Technical Warning Signals

Based on 4-hour candlestick analysis, ETH is currently in an overbought state, with the KDJ indicator reaching 86. This suggests potential short-term pullback pressure, but it’s important to note that this is not an absolute sell signal—strong momentum markets can sustain overbought conditions for longer.

Recent technical support levels are around $3,080–$3,075, close to the whale-building prices. If a pullback occurs, this zone could serve as a rebound point.

Asymmetric Risks Among Market Participants

Interestingly, the asymmetry in liquidation strength reflects a current market reality: long positions are more concentrated, implying greater downside risk. However, this also means that once the price breaks through $3,476, the relatively smaller short liquidation strength ($1.223 billion) could allow for a smoother upward movement.

In other words, downside risk is concentrated at a clear price point ($3,149), while upside risk is more dispersed. This structure is relatively favorable for medium-term bullish traders.

Summary

The current liquidation strength data for ETH outlines a clear risk landscape: $3,149 below is a critical support for longs, and losing it could trigger chain liquidations worth around $2.2 billion; above, $3,476 is the stop-loss zone for shorts. The current price of $3,328 is in a relatively safe but sensitive position.

Recent whale and institutional movements show active support near the lower levels, possibly reflecting confidence in the bottom. The overbought technical signals suggest short-term pullback pressure, but ongoing long-term allocations indicate that the market’s fundamental support remains intact.

Key observation points are: if ETH can hold the support around $3,200, rebound momentum may strengthen; if it breaks below this area, caution is warranted for an accelerated decline toward $3,149.