#我的2026第一条帖 January 14, the crypto market maker Wintermute analyzed in its digital asset OTC trading market review: the traditional four-year cycle performance of Bitcoin in 2025 is weak, and the altcoin cycle has almost disappeared. This is not a temporary adjustment but a structural change. Therefore, for the crypto market to truly rebound strongly in 2026, it heavily depends on the occurrence of at least one of the following three key outcomes:

1. ETF and crypto treasury (DAT) companies will expand their investment scope beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Currently, the US spot BTC/ETH ETFs have liquidity concentrated in a few large-cap tokens, leading to a narrowing market breadth and severe performance divergence. Only when more coins are included by institutions through ETFs or corporate treasuries can broader market participation and liquidity be restored.
2. Major assets such as BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, etc., will once again show strong performance and generate market participation driven by widespread asset appreciation. In 2025, the traditional cycle of "BTC rising followed by funds flowing into altcoins" has basically broken down. The average altcoin rally cycle is only about 20 days (compared to about 60 days the previous year), with most tokens continuing to decline due to unlocking selling pressure. Only when leading assets surge again can funds spill over downward, activating the altcoin market.
3. Retail investor attention returns to the crypto market. Currently, retail investors are still actively participating, but funds are mainly invested in high-growth themes such as the S&P 500, AI, robotics, and quantum computing. The painful memories of 2022-2023 (crashes, bankruptcies, forced liquidations), combined with crypto underperforming traditional stock markets in 2025, have significantly reduced the attractiveness of high returns in crypto assets. Only with a large-scale return of retail investors can the market regain its frenzy momentum.