#Strategy加仓BTC Gold is about to surge higher, and tonight three major variables will determine the direction!

This week's closing battle hinges on tonight. Although gold and silver pulled back after a rally yesterday, they were hit again by the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing, but the bottom actually remains quite stable, and funds haven't really fled, so there's no need to fear the correction.

Tonight's three major events will directly decide the trend of gold and silver—first, the US retail sales monthly rate data. If this data falls short of expectations, the dollar is likely to be hammered, and gold and silver could surge; second, the US Supreme Court will rule on whether Trump's tariffs are constitutional. If found unconstitutional, the dollar's credibility will be hurt, which is definitely bullish for precious metals; third, the selling pressure from the Bloomberg Commodity Index should have mostly cleared.

Deeper support also comes from geopolitical tensions—US-Iran confrontation, the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, all of which will push up crude oil and inflation expectations. Plus, with Powell being investigated and the Federal Reserve's independence questioned, these factors are all fueling the rally in precious metals.

From a technical perspective, although today’s daily candle closed as a bearish line breaking the three-day bullish streak, the moving averages still show a bullish pattern, with the 5-day moving average holding at the key level of 4550. Resistance above is near yesterday’s high of 4635; a breakout could push further toward 4662. The four-hour chart is currently consolidating at high levels, forming a oscillating upward channel, with support at 4570 and resistance at 4636-4640. RSI has already surged to 72, entering overbought territory, indicating a short-term technical correction is possible.

The one-hour chart is even more sensitive, with RSI hitting 75, clearly overbought. Short-term resistance focuses on the gap around 4625, with support at 4602-4613, the institutional defense zone. The overall trend remains bullish, but a short-term correction should be watched carefully.

Therefore, the trading suggestion is: wait for a correction, buy around 4590-4596, with a stop-loss below 4570, targeting 4628-4634. If broken, look toward 4660. If the market doesn’t give a correction opportunity, then wait until it stabilizes above 4620-4630 before chasing, with a stop-loss at 4610, targeting 4660-4680.

Physical gold and ETFs can be held long-term, while leveraged traders can take advantage of high and low to maintain core positions. Beginners should stay on the sidelines for now, waiting for tonight’s uncertainty to clear, as the main upward wave will be the real opportunity. In the long term, gold is expected to surge toward 4700-4800, and silver may also challenge $100.

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