Last night, I saw BTC break through 96,000, and the comment section instantly exploded with all kinds of "see you at 100,000" voices flooding in. But to be honest, the logic behind this rally needs to be analyzed calmly. Many people are still chasing the high, unaware that this could be the most dangerous rebound in a downtrend—appearing to be a sign of life, but actually a trap.

From a weekly chart perspective, the situation is indeed interesting. The lowest point has gradually risen from 84,000 to 88,000 and then to 92,000, with a stepwise increase that easily makes people think the trend is turning. Plus, the MACD has shown a golden cross below the zero line, which at first glance suggests an imminent reversal. But this is exactly where most people get fooled—the typical ABC structure shows that this "slowing down of the decline and initial rebound" signal is essentially a B wave. In simple terms, it’s attracting funds that are thinking about "buying the dip and getting rich overnight."

The daily chart explains the issue even better. These days, the price has been repeatedly rising, but the key indicator—trading volume—has not been cooperating. When it surged to 96,000 yesterday, the peak volume was only 360 million. Comparing this to the high point last October, when the trading volume was in the trillions, the gap is obvious. The divergence between volume and price is unmistakable. A rise without volume support is inherently questionable in terms of sustainability.