The Supreme Court's ruling on the tariff case is expected to be announced tonight at 11 PM, which has been a recent focus of market attention.

From a probability perspective, the support for this tariff case is currently only 29%, indicating that there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the policy direction. If the ruling is in favor, the risk amplification effect will be significantly magnified — it will not only increase market volatility expectations but also trigger a series of chain reactions.

Personally, I lean towards the belief that the ruling may be delayed. If the final policy is approved, the government will need to refund approximately $150 billion to importers and businesses. This massive expenditure will be directly drawn from the Treasury Department's account, which will have profound impacts on macroeconomics and asset allocation. Capital flows, market sentiment, and trading strategies will all need to be readjusted. Keep an eye on how this ruling will specifically impact liquidity and risk premiums in the crypto market.