【SOL Short-term Pattern Analysis: These Two Levels Are Critical】

I’ve been analyzing SOL 1-hour K-line charts all morning, combining on-chain information and current market sentiment. Let me give you the conclusion directly: in the short term, it will continue to fluctuate sideways, but there are no signs of the bottom structure being broken. The real determinant of the trend is the 143-147 range. Once it breaks below or above this zone, the next direction will be almost certain.

From a technical perspective, details matter:

The price repeatedly fluctuates around the MA7 (145.44) and EMA7 (145.33), indicating that the bulls and bears are temporarily balanced. However, there’s an additional line of defense—the dense support zone formed by MA30 (142.67) and EMA30 (143.02). As long as this support holds, the current consolidation is just healthy chip exchange, nothing unhealthy.

The BOLL channel (143.63-146.84) is clearly narrowing, with volatility compressed to an extreme. Do you know when the channel gets this tight? Usually, it’s on the eve of a major move. The price is now near the upper band. If it can hold above 146.8 and volume increases, then testing the previous high around 149 becomes a high-probability event.

On the MACD, the green bars just turned red and then fell back, indicating that bullish momentum is attempting to recover. If the fast and slow lines can form a golden cross above the zero line, the rebound strength will definitely be stronger.

What about on-chain data? Over the past 24 hours, large transfers (over $100,000) on the SOL network increased by 15%, but net inflow into exchanges remains only mildly positive. This data is interesting—large holders are active on-chain but not piling into exchanges en masse. It suggests they are still repositioning within the market rather than fleeing.

Perpetual contract funding rates have remained neutral to slightly low, with no signs of crazy long premiums. This indicates that market sentiment is relatively calm and restrained, creating conditions for healthy upward movement after the consolidation.

There’s also some positive news. NFT trading volume in the Solana ecosystem has recently defied the trend and increased. Protocols like Kamino with leverage mining continue to attract activity, and the fundamentals are still supportive. If tonight’s US tech stocks report strong earnings, the risk appetite in crypto will likely pick up. As a high-beta asset, SOL will probably react first.

How to trade?

Aggressive traders can buy in stages around 143.5-144.5, with a stop-loss at 142.5, targeting 147.5 or even 149. Conservative traders should wait for a daily close above 147 and a successful retest, then go long with a target of 152. If it falls below 142.5, switch to a wait-and-see stance, and consider buying low around 138-140.

The biggest mistake in sideways markets is chasing the top or panicking at the bottom. Holding these key levels and letting the market play out its own direction is the right approach. I remain optimistic about SOL in the long term, but in the short term, respecting the market rhythm is essential.