Tariff policies may face legal challenges. The market is already paying attention to the upcoming Supreme Court ruling — the probability of Trump policy losing in the prediction platform is priced at 72%.

What does this probability mean? If the Supreme Court rules that the tariff measures are illegal, the collected tariff revenues may need to be refunded. For the market, this is not only a policy adjustment but also a potential sharp revision of expectations.

Policy uncertainty is often a key trigger for market volatility. From an asset allocation perspective, the impact of such macro events on risk assets is worth monitoring. How it will evolve specifically depends on the final judicial decision.