Recently, many traders are unsure about the market direction. Let's break down the actual operational logic of the market.

Since November, BTC has been repeatedly consolidating around 96,000, taking three months to gradually digest the selling pressure at 95,000. During this period, assets like non-ferrous metals, stock markets, and Japanese government bonds have been continuously draining liquidity, and the financial market liquidity remains dispersed — this is obvious.

Last night, a pulse pushed the price to 96,500, seemingly aiming for 100,000, but a closer look shows that the market is not yet ready for that. This attempt to test the waters appears more like an effort to trigger short leverage, preparing for the upcoming correction.

The likely trend is as follows: in the short term, there is still some room for a slight rebound. After the short sellers are exhausted, the price is likely to retreat back to around 90,000 for a correction. A genuine breakout will only occur when liquidity in non-ferrous metals and the stock market loosens, allowing funds to flow back in large scale. Only then can BTC stabilize above 100,000 and break through upward.

Here’s a key point to understand — going from 90,000 to 100,000 may not seem like a big increase, but whether it can hold is crucial. The formation of any trend requires the combined effort of institutions and retail investors; the reality is about seeking profits. In the short term, the crypto market has not yet formed an environment of focused liquidity, so there’s no need to rush.