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The global financial markets are facing a rare double shock. U.S. retail sales and PPI data will be released prominently, coupled with a major Supreme Court ruling on trade policy. This "perfect storm" has traders on high alert.
Let's first look at the economic data. The market generally expects November retail sales to increase by 0.4% month-over-month, showing a rebound from previous levels. Online sales during the Black Friday shopping season are particularly impressive—Adobe Analytics reports an increase of over 23%, adding some positive signals to overall consumption data. However, the turning point lies in the PPI. Last month's core PPI month-over-month increase exceeded expectations, with food prices soaring by 3.3%. This sticky inflation pressure remains. These data points will directly influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy direction, and the market is highly sensitive to this.
A more critical variable comes from the policy level. The legal ruling window on the legitimacy of trade policies has reopened, with a case previously delayed now facing a new decision date. Policy makers have repeatedly stated that if the ruling is unfavorable, the U.S. economy could suffer impacts worth trillions of dollars. If further delays occur, the tilt of the legal balance could shift, potentially affecting the global trade landscape. This policy uncertainty has already triggered chain reactions in U.S. stocks, supply chain restructuring, and other areas.
Essentially, this is a collision between the fundamental economic outlook of inflation and consumption and the major upheaval in trade policy. Today's market volatility is likely to surge to new heights. For holders of crypto assets and traditional financial assets, closely monitoring these key moments and proactively implementing risk hedging strategies is the pragmatic choice at this time.