#数字资产市场动态 Eight years of trading experience. From initial capital to the current scale, my biggest insight is one sentence: instead of dreaming of a big turnaround, it's better to steadily compound and earn returns. Using 50% of your position can earn 80% of the profit. It sounds counterintuitive, but it's actually a victory of probability.

**Fundamentals of Money Management Are the First Line of Defense**

Divide your total funds into 5 parts, investing only 1/5 each time. What's the benefit of this approach? Set a 10% stop-loss, so a single loss only accounts for 2% of total capital. Even five consecutive wrong trades only lose 10%, while most people get wiped out after a full position explosion. Rather than just trading, it's like racing against mathematical probability—if your win rate exceeds 50%, time becomes your friend.

**Following the Trend Is the Surefire Strategy in Probability Games**

In a downtrend, every rebound is a trap for bulls trying to buy the dip. In an uptrend, every dip is digging a golden pit. The difference is, the success rate of low-buying in the trend is much higher than contrarian bottom-fishing. Simply put, instead of betting on a coin price reversal, follow the trend. Mainstream coins like $BTC/$ETH follow this rule, and altcoins even more so.

**Beware of Short-term Parabolic Rises**

Stay away from coins that surge rapidly in a short period, whether they are mainstream or new. Why? Because after a short-term spike, the difficulty of continuing to rise increases exponentially. Stagnation at high levels often indicates no new buying interest, leading naturally to a pullback—this is the simplest supply and demand logic. Many people, knowing this, still want to gamble, and the results are predictable.

**Use Technical Indicators to Lock in Entry and Exit Points**

MACD is a tool I frequently use. When DIF and DEA form a golden cross below the zero line and are about to break above zero, it's a solid bullish signal. Conversely, when MACD forms a death cross above zero and moves downward, consider reducing or closing your position. This isn't mysticism; it's a pattern verified by many traders with real money.

**Regarding Averaging Down, I Want to Say a Heartbreaking Truth**

The more you lose, the more you add; the more you add, the more you lose—that's the most common death trap for retail traders in crypto. Once caught in the cycle of averaging down on losses, mental defenses break down, often forcing you to cut losses. The correct approach is the opposite: add only when in profit, and decisively stop when in loss. It sounds cold-blooded, but it protects your principal and mental state.

**Volume Is Key to Judging Breakouts**

A volume breakout after a consolidation at a low level is worth tracking; if high volume occurs but prices don't rise or even stagnate, it's time to exit decisively. Volume is like the heartbeat of the crypto market—when it weakens, don't expect new highs. This is especially obvious with $BTC and other mainstream coins; shrinking volume makes it hard to form new highs.

**Use Moving Averages to Find Suitable Trading Cycles**

The 3-day moving average turning upward indicates a clear short-term trend. The 30-day moving average represents the medium-term trend. When the 84-day moving average turns upward, it often signals the start of a major upward wave. The 120-day moving average is a long-term trend indicator. Different moving average periods correspond to different holding periods; matching them well increases efficiency. Only trading coins in an uptrend minimizes wasted time and maximizes success rate.

**Review as a Second Practice in Trading**

Always review each trade: Has the fundamental situation of the coin changed? Does the technical pattern on the weekly chart still match the original judgment? Has the trend reversed? Timely review and strategy adjustment help avoid being slapped in the face by the market. Trading isn't about luck; it's about continuous self-optimization.

Sharing these methodologies is because they are truly effective, and effective things deserve to be known by more people. In this market, sticking to systematic thinking and rejecting gambler mentality are the real ways to navigate through the investment fog.