U.S. Soybean Oil Price Rallies Amid Strong Futures Activity

Trading Session Shows Broad-Based Strength

The soybean complex demonstrated resilience during today’s trading session, with multiple contract months posting notable advances. The U.S. soybean oil price saw strength alongside commodity peers, as soy oil futures climbed 30 to 40 points. Concurrently, soymeal futures rose between 30 cents and $1.20, while spot soybeans advanced 2 to nearly 6 cents. The national average cash soybean price reached $9.91 following a 3-cent uptick, according to cmdtyView data.

Delivery activity remained active, with 84 January soybean contracts transferred overnight. Supporting this movement, the USDA disclosed a private export sale totaling 198,000 metric tons to unnamed end-users, signaling continued international demand for the commodity.

Export Commitments Trail Historical Averages

Recent USDA Export Sales reports reveal a more tempered pace for American soybean shipments. Current export commitments stand at 28.576 million metric tons as of January 1, representing 29% of the 2024/25 marketing year equivalent period. This achievement accounts for 64% of the USDA’s annual target—trailing the customary 82% pace at this point in the season.

Actual shipments tell a similar story, with 16.347 million metric tons sent abroad, marking a 45% decline year-over-year and representing just 37% of the USDA forecast versus a historical average of 57%. This gap suggests potential supply tightness could support prices heading into the new year.

International Developments and Stock Forecasts

China’s state-owned Sinograin announced plans to auction 1.1 million metric tons of imported soybeans covering inventory from 2022 through 2025, with the auction scheduled for January 13. The move reflects competitive positioning in global soybean procurement.

Looking ahead, the upcoming WASDE report slated for Monday release is anticipated to project U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season at 295 million bushels—a 5 million bushel month-over-month increase according to Bloomberg analyst consensus.

Price Reference Points

• January 2026 Soybeans: $10.52 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents
• Nearby Cash Price: $9.91, up 3 cents
• March 2026 Soybeans: $10.64, up 2 3/4 cents
• May 2026 Soybeans: $10.75 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents

The combination of softer export momentum and supportive delivery data continues shaping market expectations as participants await Monday’s WASDE guidance.