#美国民主党BlueVault (Market Observation on January 16, 2026)

$ETH has been oscillating between 3280 and 3350 in the past two days. In the short term, the probability of continued volatility is higher. If it pulls back, 3200-3150 is a key support level to hold. Falling below that would require serious attention to risk.

The most frustrating aspect of this kind of market is that a one-sided trend is hard to sustain—you need to seize the rhythm within the oscillation to make profits. Ethereum is battling back and forth around 3300, with both bulls and bears testing their bottom lines. Until support and resistance are clearly understood, it's better not to rush into the market.

From a macro perspective, institutional activity remains quite active. Large asset managers like BlackRock are continuously accumulating and staking, which has a locking effect on circulating supply. However, the delay in the US crypto regulation bill has caused some market tension—cautious sentiment has dampened market enthusiasm, and selling pressure hasn't fully materialized.

On the technical side, the daily chart faces resistance around 3350, and the bullish momentum indicated by MACD is starting to weaken. The four-hour chart shows a converging pattern, with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 3200—this is a critical support level. The hourly chart shows repeated tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with volume insufficient to confirm a clear one-sided trend.

**Long-term bullish idea**: Wait for a pullback to stabilize around 3200-3150, enter small positions gradually, with a stop-loss below 3130. Short-term target remains at 3300-3350; if broken, look for potential to reach around 3400.

**Short-selling logic**: If a rebound to 3350-3400 encounters resistance, consider light short positions with a stop-loss above 3420. The mid-term target is a retest of 3280-3250.

Disclaimer: The above is solely my personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Please adjust your operations flexibly based on your risk tolerance and position management principles.