Bull and Bear Cycles Have Changed

This chart measures the long-term deviation or reversal behavior of the price around the fair value using the #Bitcoin Stock to Flow Reversion indicator.

When the S2F Reversion level surpasses 1 sharply, historically, either a peak or a prolonged horizontal correction process has begun. This is clearly seen at the 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2024 peaks.

Drops below 1 have historically been the best risk/reward zones.

In the current chart, the Reversion value is high but not at extreme peak levels. The SMAs are upward sloping, but volume is weakening as it rises. This structure generally indicates that,
the upward trend continues but with a loss of momentum. The intermediate trend upward has not been broken. In the short term, as today, Fiyst may show sideways and choppy rises with small corrections.

Bitcoin is currently neither cheap nor excessively expensive. The short-term upward movement continues, but in the big picture, the downward trend seems to follow the rise.

After the ETF, this cycle diverges from previous cycles. Because,
unlike previous cycles, there is continuous, time-distributed demand from institutions through spot ETFs. Therefore, although S2F Reversion spikes more frequently, it cannot stay in the overly negative zone as long as in past cycles.

Currently, along with the Halving, the daily BTC supply has decreased by 50%. Miner selling pressure has structurally decreased. ETFs become significant at this point because they create net demand above the daily produced $BTC . For this reason, bear seasons may be more superficial for Bitcoin.

Between 2017-2021, Reversion reached levels 2+ and then experienced a 70–80% bear market.

Between 2024–2025, Reversion fluctuated between 1-3. Despite this, the price reached a peak. Throughout 2025, it moved sideways both while rising and falling. The price dropped from $127 to $81K with a sideways decline. No sharp crashes occurred.

In the big picture, ETFs and Halving extended and softened the classic 4-year cycle. Therefore, a more volatile but upward-trending structure, stretching into 2025–2026, seems more likely than a sudden crash like in 2021.

⚠️ #advertisement or investment advice is not provided. This analysis reflects my personal opinion. It does not guarantee certainty.