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According to Polymarket, the probability of the Supreme Court UPHOLDING Trump's tariffs is only 27%.
So the market is currently pricing in a CANCELLATION.
However, Trump warned the court last week that overturning this decision would be a complete disaster (WE'RE SCREWED) and would require hundreds of billions of dollars in tax refunds.
But the most important point is that uncertainty for markets is worse than taxes.
A cancellation decision would immediately reduce the tension with the US's global partners.
If the court overturns this decision, the US issuing tax refunds might seem like a short-term negative. But the market might not be pricing that in; instead, it could be pricing in the end of the trade war risk.
As risk appetite increases, investors may move out of safe havens like gold and silver and into stocks and risky assets like cryptocurrencies.
Therefore, while the cancellation decision may cause short-term volatility, I believe it will increase risk appetite in the long term and create a positive environment for cryptocurrencies.