🌐 Macro Outlook 2026: The Structural Backdrop

From a macro perspective, the foundation is relatively stable:
Global GDP growth: ~3.1%–3.3% (IMF & Bloomberg estimates)
Growth supported by the U.S., Europe, and Asia
AI investment is becoming a core productivity and earnings driver
After 2025 rate cuts, markets expect the Fed in 2026 to remain
→ mostly neutral, possibly 1–2 limited cuts
This environment is broadly supportive for risk assets
However, key risks remain active:
Political uncertainty (Trump’s trade and fiscal policy reversals)
Geopolitical tensions
Slowing Chinese growth
The risk that AI investment underdelivers expectations
🎯 How Markets Are Interpreting This
Trump’s tariff reversal sent a clear signal:
📌 Markets are no longer pricing rhetoric — they’re pricing actions.
But as highlighted by institutions like Deutsche Bank:
These reversals tend to fuel short-term optimism,
without eliminating structural policy risk.
Bond markets and large capital flows remain cautious.
➡️ This rally is not fully confirmed.
🧭 Final Take: Not a Regime Shift — a Balance Phase
Short term: relief + volatility
Medium term: optimism dependent on political headlines
Long term: AI-driven growth vs. policy instability
📌 Fear is no longer accelerating — but confidence hasn’t returned.
These transition phases often deliver both opportunity and sharp reversals.
❓ Do you see this move as the beginning of a sustained global risk-on cycle — or just a tactical pause before the next wave of volatility?
#TrumpWithdrawsEUTariffThreats