Bitcoin repeatedly tests fluctuations in NZD against USD, with foreign exchange policies becoming a price variable

Recently, Bitcoin has exhibited a complex price trajectory influenced by multiple factors such as the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar. From recent trends, BTC briefly broke through $91,000 during US trading on Friday but then fell into consolidation, repeatedly hovering between $88,000 and $90,000, indicating market disagreement on the future direction. Currently, BTC is around $88.04K, with a 24-hour decline of -2.18%, suggesting that the rebound momentum remains to be confirmed.

Bank of Japan Policy Adjustment Triggers Chain Reaction in Forex Market

The recent Bitcoin volatility is closely related to changes in the NZD/USD exchange rate. The Bank of Japan recently maintained its existing monetary policy framework but signaled more hawkish tones in its statement, a subtle shift that immediately caused ripples in the forex market. The yen strengthened against the dollar, and industry insiders generally speculate that Japanese authorities have intervened in the forex market.

This chain reaction is no coincidence. Over the past few months, the persistent depreciation of the yen against the dollar has been viewed as a key factor suppressing Bitcoin and the entire crypto market. The weakening yen directly impacts the cost of leveraged arbitrage trading denominated in yen, thereby dragging down broader risk asset allocations. Now, the adjustment in forex patterns such as the NZD/USD suggests that this long-term suppressive factor may be turning, creating conditions for a rebound in Bitcoin and other high-risk assets.

Crypto and Traditional Assets Rise Together, Signaling Improved Market Risk Appetite

This slight adjustment in forex policy immediately triggered a domino effect in asset markets. Bitcoin mining companies were among the most direct beneficiaries. Listed mining firms like Iren (IREN), Hut 8 (HUT), TeraWulf (WULF), and CleanSpark (CLSK) quickly reversed their early losses, ultimately gaining between 5% and 10%. As the largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally, MicroStrategy (MSTR) also rebounded 5% from Friday’s lows. Coinbase (COIN), despite a sharp decline in early trading, narrowed its losses to just 1%.

More notably, precious metals markets also rose in tandem—often reflecting market expectations of macro policy shifts. Silver spot prices surged over 5%, reaching $101.44 per ounce; gold increased by 1.5%, approaching the $5,000 per ounce level; platinum and palladium both climbed over 6%. This cross-asset rebound indicates rising consensus among investors regarding macro policy adjustments. The US stock market also reversed its early decline, with the Nasdaq up 0.6%, reflecting a marginal improvement in risk appetite.

Emerging Crypto Assets Show Strong Vitality

In this rebound, new-generation crypto assets also demonstrated growth potential. Pudgy Penguins, one of the most representative brands in the NFT space, is evolving from a simple digital collectible into a multi-dimensional consumer IP platform. The ecosystem has generated over $13 million in retail sales and millions of units in merchandise sales, with its gaming products downloaded over 500,000 times in two weeks. The PENGU token has been distributed to over 6 million wallets, laying the foundation for ecosystem expansion.

Meanwhile, the Optimism ecosystem is advancing its governance innovation. The community recently approved a 12-month plan to allocate about half of the Superchain revenue to OP token buybacks starting from February. Such proactive buyback measures are generally seen as a long-term commitment signal to token value.

Caution Still Needed in Derivatives Market

Despite signs of a rebound in the spot market, derivatives markets are signaling a different picture. The CoinDesk 20 index continues to decline amid a risk-averse investor sentiment, with open interest decreasing and market volatility remaining subdued. Traders are increasingly demanding protective put options and short positions, indicating that many participants are preparing defensively against potential downside risks.

Market Outlook: Can NZD Exchange Rate and BTC Resonance Form?

The core of the current market performance depends on whether forex patterns like the NZD/USD can truly stabilize. If the Bank of Japan continues to signal hawkish policy, further yen appreciation could reverse the profit logic of yen arbitrage trading, easing a long-term pressure on the crypto market. Conversely, if forex markets become volatile again, whether Bitcoin can sustain above $88,000 remains uncertain.

Fundamentally, the current market divergence reflects differing expectations about the durability and depth of policy shifts. Some traders see this as the start of a new upward cycle for Bitcoin and risk assets, while others remain cautious about short-term volatility. Until key exchange rates like NZD/USD establish a clear trend, investors should continue monitoring forex markets closely while remaining alert to defensive signals from derivatives markets.