Trump's Energy War: Sacrificing Oil to Save the Dollar—How Deep Are the Underlying Strategies?

Recently, the global commodities market has experienced an unprecedented extreme cycle in the past decade. Gold has surged relentlessly, defying all negative factors and maintaining an upward trend, while crude oil continues to decline with no bottom in sight. This extreme divergence between gold and oil is no longer explainable by simple market supply and demand.
The core driver behind this is none other than Trump, who has officially taken control of the White House and laid out an energy chessboard. By sacrificing oil, he aims to prolong the dominance of the US dollar. This seemingly oil-price-centered game actually conceals multiple deep-level strategies involving the US economy, geopolitical politics, and the global monetary system. Understanding this chess game is key to grasping the current core trends of the global financial markets.
Trump’s first move in his energy war is to resolve the US economic deadlock, with a core logic summarized in four words: exchange oil for interest. Currently, the US is trapped in an unsolvable economic dilemma: inflation remains high, yet the Federal Reserve’s high-interest rate policy is unsustainable.
US debt has surpassed its historical peak, with annual interest payments reaching astronomical levels. Persistent high interest rates are continuously straining the US fiscal budget, and a rate cut is imminent. However, the Fed has yet to find a legitimate excuse to do so.
Energy prices are the fundamental backdrop of inflation; fluctuations in oil prices directly influence the US CPI data. This is a key reason why Trump has targeted oil.
During the campaign, Trump famously shouted “Drill, baby, drill,” and after taking office, he swiftly implemented a series of energy policies: overturning Biden’s offshore drilling ban, designating dozens of oil and gas leasing areas along coasts in Alaska, California, Florida, and expanding offshore oil and gas extraction; establishing a National Energy Leadership Committee to revitalize the US energy industry; and even cutting federal funding for hundreds of clean energy projects, halting offshore wind and other sustainable energy plans.
Trump’s strategy is simple: by aggressively expanding shale oil extraction and releasing US oil and gas capacity, he aims to keep international oil prices low—targeting around $60 or even lower.
As long as oil prices fall sharply, US inflation data will improve rapidly, providing the Fed with a strong justification for significant rate cuts. This not only sustains the sluggish stock market but also alleviates fiscal pressure caused by high interest rates. It’s a high-stakes gamble: using oil capacity to give the US economy a breather.
Therefore, the ongoing decline in crude oil prices is not merely due to high inventories or weak demand but is a preemptive move by global capital to pay for Trump’s low-oil-price policy.
Every drop in oil price is a realization of expectations for US rate cuts. Before Trump’s energy strategy takes full effect, oil is destined to become a “sacrifice” to ease America’s economic crisis.
This is the core reason behind the divergence between crude oil and its fundamentals.
If exchanging oil for interest is to solve America’s internal issues, the second move in Trump’s energy war is to leverage oil prices for geopolitical maneuvering—precisely targeting the economic lifelines of opponents.
A sharp drop in oil prices primarily hits oil-producing countries in the Middle East, but the most severely affected is Russia, which relies heavily on energy exports—over 40% of its fiscal revenue comes from energy exports. Every step down in oil prices deals a heavy blow to Russia’s finances, causing significant fluctuations in the ruble’s exchange rate. This economic suppression is more effective and deadly than direct military confrontation.
Trump understands clearly that lowering oil prices not only undermines Russia’s economic foundation but also weakens its influence in the global energy market—more direct than supplying weapons to Ukraine.
This explains why OPEC+ has repeatedly called for production cuts to stabilize prices but has seen little success. In the face of Trump’s strong political will and the US’s vast energy capacity, traditional supply-demand laws have long been distorted and rendered ineffective.
OPEC+’s production cuts are no match for the US’s capacity expansion. What appears to be a market game of international oil prices is actually the US wielding energy as a weapon in a geopolitical contest. Opponents are making political moves beyond market understanding within familiar frameworks—oil is merely a pawn in this game.
What’s most intriguing about this energy war is that behind the falling oil prices lies a deeper crisis of US dollar credibility. This is also the core reason why gold has been soaring—this is Trump’s third move and his most intractable knot: killing oil to preserve interest, but at the cost of overextending US dollar trust.
Trump’s operation of lowering oil prices to create room for rate cuts inevitably produces a deadly side effect: to ease fiscal pressure and stimulate the economy, the Fed must flood the market with liquidity after rate cuts, causing the dollar to further flood and its purchasing power to continuously decline. This marks the beginning of global doubts about US dollar credibility.
This is the fundamental reason why gold ignores negative news and continues to rise. Today’s gold is no longer just an inflation hedge but a “Noah’s Ark” for global capital to hedge systemic risks of dollar credibility.
China has long recognized this trend, continuously increasing gold holdings and reducing US Treasuries; many developing countries are following suit—abandoning dollar settlement and increasing holdings of hard assets like gold. A wave of de-dollarization is quietly unfolding worldwide.
The more the US manipulates oil prices and interest rates to mask its debt and economic imbalance, the more global capital will hesitate to bet on US dollar credibility. The safe-haven value of gold becomes more prominent.
Thus, the divergence between gold and oil essentially reflects two opposing logics:
The decline in oil is driven by US political will—aimed at solving internal economic issues; the rise in gold is a vote of confidence from global capital—silent resistance to US market manipulation.
On one side, oil becomes a “sacrifice” for the US; on the other, gold becomes a “refuge” for countries avoiding dollar devaluation. This energy war led by Trump has long transcended commodity pricing and evolved into a profound contest over US dollar hegemony and the restructuring of the global monetary system.
Once these three layers of logic are understood, the subsequent market trends become clear. For crude oil, before Trump’s energy policies are fully implemented and US oil and gas capacity is fully unleashed, it is highly likely that oil prices will remain suppressed. Any attempt to bottom fish at this stage is akin to catching falling knives—since the main driver of this market isn’t the market itself but political agendas. Until political goals are achieved, technical support is meaningless.
For gold, as long as the US debt snowball continues to grow, the Fed’s rate cut expectations persist, and the US dollar’s credibility crisis remains unresolved, the long-term upward trend of gold will not change.
Occasional deep corrections are normal market consolidations and opportunities for long-term investors to “reverse and catch up,” supported by continuous buying from central banks and large institutions. Gold’s rise is a collective choice of global capital.
This energy war not only impacts the global commodities market but also closely relates to our personal asset allocation. Many believe falling oil prices are good—saving tens of dollars per tank, and supermarket prices seem stable—leading to the misconception that inflation is under control. In reality, this is a “price illusion” created by Trump.
The US’s “sacrifice oil to save the dollar” operation is essentially using global purchasing power to back its debt and deficits. The continuous flooding of dollars will eventually lead to global inflation, and our cash holdings will depreciate unknowingly.
Therefore, ordinary people don’t need to be professional macro traders, but they must have basic risk hedging awareness. In this era of ongoing great power games and weakening dollar credibility, assets should not be concentrated solely in cash. Instead of letting savings sit in banks earning minimal interest and being slowly eroded by inflation, it’s better to allocate a small portion to gold and other risk-hedging assets to add a “safety cushion” to your wealth.
Trump’s attempt to prolong US dollar hegemony by sacrificing oil overlooks a core fact: US dollar dominance has never been achieved through market manipulation or suppressing opponents but is built on trust.
Repeated US political interventions in markets and continuous credit overextension are gradually weakening the dollar’s foundation. This energy war may give the US a brief economic respite but will accelerate the process of global de-dollarization. It’s Trump’s move, and it’s also the beginning of the decline of US dollar hegemony.
In prosperous times, buy stories; in turbulent times, buy certainty. In this era full of calculations and games, true market certainty never lies in a single candlestick or price movement but in the political and credit battles behind oil and gold. Understanding Trump’s energy war and the US dollar’s credit crisis is essential to safeguarding your wealth in a complex global market.
His strategy may seem clever, but it actually ignites the fuse of dollar decay:
Suppressing oil prices, igniting a prairie fire of de-dollarization;
Gaining temporary relief, but overextending the empire’s last credit reserves!!!#金价突破5500美元