How Did BitGo's $18 IPO Become a Standout Amid the Crypto Market Downturn

In an industry where most public companies are facing significant declines, BitGo has set its own trajectory. Its initial public offering at a price of $18 per share is not just a number—it reflects growing investor confidence in the cryptocurrency custodial services business. Just one day after its launch on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker BTGO, the company achieved a $2 billion market valuation, a point that demonstrates how different business models in crypto are eliciting varied reactions from the market.

The Industry Is at a Low Point, but the Custody Play Stands Out

The period is very challenging for cryptocurrency-linked public companies. Bullish, the owner of CoinDesk, saw its share price drop over 40% in the past six months. Owlting, an infrastructure and stablecoin payment firm, has plummeted by as much as 90%. Gemini, the cryptocurrency custody and trading platform associated with the Winklevoss twins, has fallen close to 70%. Meanwhile, the CoinDesk 20 index—a gauge of the broader cryptocurrency sector—has declined by more than one-third. Amid this global price downturn, BitGo stands out as a company with a solid future.

The key difference lies in the name of the game: custody and staking services. These businesses account for over 80% of BitGo’s revenue and offer a more predictable income stream compared to trading volume-based businesses. Take advantage of the fact that institutional investors continue to seek secure ways to manage their crypto holdings, and you can see why the custody franchise remains resilient even as the larger market struggles.

Why BitGo Commands a Premium Valuation in the IPO

The $2 billion valuation is not just a random figure. Analysts like Matthew Sigel from VanEck estimate that BitGo could generate over $400 million in revenue and more than $120 million in EBITDA by 2028. These numbers justify a valuation higher than the IPO price of $18, especially if the company hits these targets.

BitGo is unique because it does not rely on trading volume or market sentiment shifts. Custody and staking services follow a more stable business model—earning from wallet holders who want to protect their assets, not from traders relying on transaction volume. This means more predictable earnings, higher margins, and a greater likelihood of sustainable growth.

The Accounting Nuance You Need to Understand

For those reviewing BitGo’s financial reports, the numbers may initially seem impressive. Some trading activities must be recorded on a gross basis according to accounting standards, inflating revenue figures even though the actual economic value retained by the company is smaller. When analysts strip out trading-related expenses, the true picture becomes clearer.

The core of BitGo’s economic engine truly revolves around custody and staking—estimated to generate roughly $160 to $170 million in annual revenue. The trading business contributes only a few million dollars in net profit, while stablecoin services have not yet scaled significantly. Serious investors focus on how the custody and staking franchise will continue to grow and how new business lines will serve as future growth engines.

How It Differs from Larger Trading Volume Competitors

Compared to giants like Coinbase and Galaxy Digital, the difference is dramatic. Those companies have broader trading operations, but their profits are more volatile because they are directly linked to market activity. BitGo, on the other hand, has smaller overall revenue but is more stable and predictable due to its emphasis on custody and staking.

This means BitGo has a unique appeal to investors seeking exposure to crypto asset growth without direct dependence on short-term price movements or trading frenzy.

The Next Step: Scaling and Expansion

BitGo’s success is not guaranteed. The company must prove that custody and staking services will continue to grow as the industry evolves. Key metrics to watch include how assets under custody increase, how many new clients connect, and how staking rewards develop.

There are also challenges. The regulatory environment for cryptocurrency services continues to evolve, and BitGo must navigate complex legal landscapes across different countries. Competition from other custody providers will not rest either. But the foundation is solid, and the business model is sound—offering a realistic path toward sustainable growth in a sector that continues to expand.