Initial jobless claims are the "high-frequency thermometer" of the labor market, influencing expectations of rate cuts and risk appetite. Unexpected deviations trigger noticeable market volatility. Released tonight at 21:30, resonating with the early morning FOMC decision, volatility may be amplified.

1. Impact Logic (Simplified)

- Initial claims < expectations (strong employment) → cooling of rate cut expectations → dollar strengthens → short-term pressure on cryptocurrencies, prone to "pin" spikes.
- Initial claims > expectations (weak employment) → warming of rate cut expectations → dollar weakens → crypto prices supported, risk appetite rebounds.
- Within expectations → limited impact, continue current oscillation; need to consider continued claims to assess labor market resilience.

2. Three Scenarios and Market Reactions

- Strong employment surprise (initial claims < 205,000, moderate probability): reinforces "longer high rates," BTC/ETH may dip briefly, leveraged positions prone to liquidation, followed by "sharp decline then slight rebound."
- Weaker employment than expected (initial claims > 215,000, moderate probability): rate cut expectations rise, mainstream coins rebound, altcoins may follow, capital inflow into crypto markets.
- Within expectations (20,500-21,500, higher probability): small volatility, continuation of early morning decision oscillation, focus on key levels (BTC support 85,000-86,000, resistance 92,000).

3. Trading and Risk Control Points

1. Leverage control + stop-loss setup: market is sensitive post-decision, reduce leverage below 2x, set stop-loss near key levels to avoid "pin" liquidations.
2. Wait for signals before acting: observe 1-2 hours after data release, confirm direction with USD, US bond yields, and volume, avoid emotional swings.
3. Monitor related indicators: USD index, Nasdaq, gold trends, often correlated with crypto; track ETF fund flows and exchange net buy-in to gauge buying strength.
4. Watch continued claims data: same direction for initial and continued claims is more reliable; if initial claims are low but continued claims high, effects may offset each other.

4. Resonance with FOMC Decision

If the early morning decision maintains rates unchanged, with Powell leaning hawkish, the market has priced in "longer high rates." If employment data shows strength tonight, hawkish expectations will intensify, exerting more pressure; if employment is weak, hawkish impact will ease, providing a rebound window.

5. Trading Rhythm Recommendations

- Before the decision: lighten positions or stay on the sidelines, avoid heavy bets.
- After release: observe 15-30 minutes of volume, price, and fund flow to decide on adding or reducing positions.
- Intraday: focus on BTC support at 85,000-86,000 and resistance at 92,000; breakouts should be traded accordingly.

If you have questions, please contact Zhao Gongzi promptly. The position adjustment package is ready!!!