Options markets assign increasing probability to Bitcoin falling below $80,000

Bitcoin started 2026 with optimistic expectations above $95,000, but options markets are painting a different picture. According to data from specialized platforms, there is a significant probability that the price will decline to lower levels in the coming months. With BTC currently trading at $88.12K after a 2.12% drop in the last 24 hours, traders are re-evaluating their bullish positions.

The latest data reveals that derivatives market participants assign approximately a 30% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $80,000 by the end of June. This figure represents a notable shift in sentiment compared to the beginning of the year, when projections were considerably more optimistic.

The collapse probability reflected in options platforms

Activity on Derive.xyz, a decentralized protocol for options and structured products trading, clearly shows this bearish inclination. Open interest is notably concentrated in put options with strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000, indicating that many traders are hedging against a deeper retreat toward the $70,000 zone.

“The options markets reflect a clear downward bias, with a 30% chance that BTC will fall below $80,000 by the end of June, compared to just a 19% probability of rising above $120,000,” explained Sean Dawson, head of research at the Derive protocol, in recent statements. This asymmetry in expectations suggests that sophisticated traders see downside risks as more probable than extreme bullish scenarios.

Deribit, the largest centralized options exchange, exhibits similar positioning patterns. The concentration of sell contracts within these price ranges is no coincidence: it reflects where market professionals believe the price could collapse.

Geopolitical tensions intensify recessionary expectations

Renewed tensions between the United States and Europe have heightened concerns about volatility. Tariff threats from President Donald Trump, particularly his controversial plan regarding Greenland, have rekindled fears of a scenario similar to April 2025, when Bitcoin plummeted to $75,000 amid widespread tariff impositions.

“The escalation of geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe increases the risk of regime change toward a higher volatility environment,” Dawson comments. The options market tilt remains negative, a technical indicator confirming that downside fears dominate in the short term.

Bitcoin has lost approximately $7,000 since its highs of $95,000, and each statement on tariff policies causes additional turbulence in the markets. This link between political events and price volatility is precisely what the implied probability in options markets is capturing.

Analysis of sell positions and risk distribution

The structure of open positions reveals that traders are not merely expecting a casual decline but a structured move toward specific levels. There is a considerable concentration of open interest in put options between $75,000 and $80,000, implying expectations of a coordinated drop toward the mid-$70,000 zone.

To understand why these numbers matter: a put option acts as insurance. Traders pay a small premium to secure a reference price. If Bitcoin falls below that level, they profit by virtually selling high. If the market moves against them, they lose the premium paid. When thousands of traders place put options at $80,000, they are sending a clear signal: that level represents a psychological breaking point where they expect a major collapse to occur.

What do these numbers reveal about BTC’s future?

The probability assigned by these markets is the collective summary of information, technical analysis, systemic risk assessment, and macroeconomic expectations. When the probability shifts toward bearish scenarios so sharply, it indicates that the professional market consensus has undergone a fundamental change.

However, it is important to remember that these probabilities are not predictions but reflections of current sentiment. The geopolitical situation could resolve, tariffs might not be fully implemented, or positive news could emerge that reorients expectations. But as long as these risks remain on the horizon, options markets will maintain a high probability of significant downward movements.

Next month will be critical. Bitcoin would need to recover above $91,000–$92,000 to start undoing the bearish narrative currently dominant in derivatives markets.