Why Does the AI Token Fever Cause Solana to Fluctuate: The Speculation Pattern Behind SOL's Volatility

Why is the fever of ups and downs becoming a common phenomenon in the Solana market lately? The answer lies in a wave of speculation that triggers a surge in network activity but also creates short-term selling pressure. Solana (SOL) is currently trading at $123.09, down 3.35% in the last 24 hours, after previously reaching a high of $127.84. This price movement reflects a complex dynamic between investor enthusiasm and quick profit realization.

Wave of Speculation: Claude Code Drives Solana Activity Surge

Solana network activity has experienced dramatic growth in recent weeks, primarily driven by buzz around Claude Code, an AI toolkit developed by Anthropic. This phenomenon creates an interesting feedback cycle: the more developers launch tokens related to viral AI repositories, the higher the transaction activity on the network.

Data shows a significant spike in on-chain metrics. The number of active addresses has increased sharply from 14.7 million at the beginning of the year to 18.9 million last week, while weekly transaction volume rose from 390 million to 530 million per week according to DefiLlama. Although many of these speculative tokens still lack fundamental backing, some have received official recognition from the original AI project team, allowing trading fees to be redirected to developers. This creates ongoing incentives for exploration and further participation.

Selling Pressure Brings SOL from High Levels to New Support

Despite the network activity continuing to surge, SOL’s price does not rise linearly. The key level of $130, which was previously a breakout target, has now become a barrier difficult to breach. The decline from $127.84 indicates that profit-taking is beginning to dominate after a strong rally period, supported by a breakout volume of around 2.34 million SOL.

Technical analysis indicates that if momentum continues to weaken, SOL may be tested at lower support levels, ranging between $122-$124. Currently, $123.09 has entered a new support zone, creating uncertainty about the next direction. This dynamic explains why the fever of ups and downs persists: enthusiasm for new token opportunities clashes with short-term price volatility realities.

User Retention Rate Determines the Continuation of Solana’s Rally

The crucial question is whether this surge in activity is sustainable or just a temporary spike. The total value locked (TVL) in Solana has fallen to around $8.4 billion, indicating that although transaction activity is high, long-term capital commitment remains limited. This suggests many participants are still in speculation mode rather than fundamental investing.

For the rally to continue beyond resistance at $130, Solana needs to convert speculative users into active, loyal users. If this pattern forms, the fever of ups and downs could lay the foundation for more stable growth. Conversely, if it’s just temporary momentum, volatility will remain dominant and become a hallmark of Solana in this season.