While the gold price rises, Bitcoin remains in a new institutional balance according to XBTO CEO

The cryptocurrency markets show a striking divergence: while the gold price rises to record highs and investors flock en masse to precious metals, Bitcoin remains stagnant below $88,000. This divergence between traditional safe-haven assets and digital assets does not signal a crisis of confidence but rather a fundamental shift in how large institutional players approach Bitcoin, according to Philippe Bekhazi, CEO of crypto trader XBTO.

The recent price movement of Bitcoin—a decline of over 2% in 24 hours to $88,120—stands in stark contrast to the gold market, where prices are reaching new heights. This divergence raises questions: does this signal market maturation, or does it indicate mispricing of digital assets?

Bitcoin has left its venture phase

According to Bekhazi, the loss of Bitcoin’s volatility and explosive potential is not a weakness but a logical consequence of institutionalization. “Bitcoin no longer trades as a frontier market asset,” he said in an interview with CoinDesk. “The distinction between Bitcoin and what we call ‘crypto’ is becoming clearer as it matures.”

The transition to a post-IPO market for Bitcoin brings significant changes. Where Bitcoin was once driven by venture-like returns and reflexive volatility, it now functions as a diversified investment instrument. Large institutions prioritize stability, liquidity, and risk management over pure beta returns.

This shift has direct implications for market dynamics. The days of one-way volatility seem to be over. Instead, we see layered market structures where:

• ETF inflows are steady but predictable
• Corporate balance sheets act as long-term buffers
• Derivatives markets distribute risks rather than concentrate them

Gold price rises as investors bypass financial uncertainty

Alongside Bitcoin’s stabilization, gold surges. New records above $5,500 per ounce reflect a fundamental shift in investor decision-making. The LBMA survey for 2026 shows unprecedented optimism: analysts expect the gold price to be nearly 40% higher on average than in 2025, while silver could nearly double.

This pattern follows a classic hierarchy of preferences as macroeconomic tensions increase. Gold remains “the global flight currency,” especially for central banks and large-scale investors without the means for quick, large Bitcoin investments. The gold price rises because these assets—physical, decentralized, and historically reliable—meet investors’ needs for value preservation.

Bekhazi emphasizes, however, that this rotation is cyclical, not an existential signal. “The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is more important than absolute price comparison,” he states. While investors shift to gold in the short term, Bitcoin positions itself as a long-term balance asset whose value proposition unfolds over years.

The microstructure of the market hides complex dynamics

Behind Bitcoin’s apparent stability lie subtle but significant market changes. Traders now employ more advanced risk transfer strategies rather than direct price speculation. This is visible in derivatives positions: traders are more likely to take short positions than aggressively sell spot.

The decentralized structure of crypto markets plays a role here. Recently, in October, liquidations caused enough damage to wipe out more than $19 billion in borrowed positions. Bekhazi sees this as evidence that institutions are increasingly focusing on “alpha generation from market microstructure”—profiting from price differences and liquidity movements—while Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain intact.

This distinction is crucial: Bitcoin’s core value proposition—finite supply versus structurally increasing demand—is independent of daily price volatility. Institutional managers act as liquidity providers when chaos ensues, profiting from market discrepancies while underlying fundamentals stabilize.

Ethereum underperforms in the same sell-off

Ethereum also feels the pressure. With a decline of over 3% to $2,940, the second-largest crypto performs significantly worse than Bitcoin. This asymmetric loss suggests weaker institutional support and less defensive positioning. While Bitcoin is considered digital gold, Ethereum behaves more like a risk asset—more sensitive to market breakpoints.

These performance differences support the Bitcoin narrative: as investors become risk-averse, funds flow into Bitcoin and traditionally defensive assets like gold, rather than into more speculative crypto positions.

What could undermine the institutional story?

Bekhazi pointed out several warning signs that could indicate market deterioration rather than maturation:

1. High-beta behavior: If Bitcoin, during inflation or crises, trades as a volatile tech asset rather than a defensive one, it undermines the digital gold narrative.

2. ETF outflows: Persistent liquidations from ETFs during routine corrections of 20% would suggest weak institutional hands rather than committed long-term investors.

3. Speculation instead of utility: Rising prices accompanied by declining on-chain activity or decreasing stablecoin usage would indicate a speculative castle-building rather than fundamentally anchored value growth.

So far, these alarms have not sounded. On-chain activity remains robust, while ETF fund flows—though less explosive than before—continue.

Gold and Bitcoin: different roles in hedging portfolios

The rise of gold prices to record highs and Bitcoin’s relative stability do not reflect rivalry but complementarity. Gold absorbs macroeconomic risk acutely; Bitcoin accumulates value over longer periods as institutional anchoring grows.

Investors with concentrated Bitcoin exposure benefit from rising gold prices—it acts as offensive protection against short-term volatility. For central banks and large institutional players, however, gold remains the preferred asset, especially since digital assets are still viewed as jurisdictionally risky.

Bekhazi emphasizes relative valuation: “The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is more important than absolute price comparison.” This perspective shifts focus from “which asset wins” to “how they function together in a diversified allocation.”

Market data: HK joins the global risk-off movement

As Hong Kong begins the trading day under pressure from global risk aversion:

• Bitcoin trades at $88,120 (-2.40%)
• Ether at $2,940 (-3.42%)
• Gold reaches new record highs
• The Japanese Nikkei 225 drops 1.28%

This pattern reflects geopolitical tensions, bond market sell-offs, and renewed protectionist threats from the White House—classic triggers for flight-to-safety behavior into assets like gold and stable investments.

Conclusion: Maturation or passing pause?

The challenge for Bitcoin in 2026 is clearly defined. As gold prices rise and traditional investors retreat to trusted value preservers, Bitcoin must prove that institutionalization does not mean stagnation.

The current phase—lower volatility, disciplined inflows, risk-aware behavior—could be a sign of market maturity or diminished exciting potential. Whether this underperformance indicates maturation or mispricing will depend on how investors evaluate Bitcoin as macroeconomic conditions evolve.

For now, markets are testing whether Bitcoin can remain calm while gold absorbs macroeconomic tensions—a test that will validate or relativize its narrative as digital gold.